Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Feeding the Hand that Bites You, Part II!

Iran's aim at hegemony in the region and the kind of world the schizoid Shia sect of Ahamdinejad envisions for the world are the antithesis of everything we envision for the future of humanity, freedom and liberty.

Iran has invested millions in Iraq for over 27 years to take over southern Iraq and its oil fields. (see Iran's presence in Iraq)

The Islamic Republic of Iran considers Southern/Shia Iraq as a province of Iran because centuries ago, Southern Iraq was Iranian territory before the "Islamo/Arab Conquest of Iran". Most Iraqis in Southern part of Iraq are from Iranian descent and, hence, the immense influence of Iran over shia Iraqis.

The Islamic Republic of Iran's sabotaging strategies is a major contributing factor in not winning the war in Iraq. The Iranian strategy of sowing civil war and fomenting sectarian feud among the Shiites and the Sunnis has been appalling. The Shia death squads funded and trained by the Iranians are killing more Sunnis than the terrorist bombs are killing Shias.

While some Sunni towns and neighborhoods can organize private guard forces, even these are helpless against police or soldiers moonlighting as shia death squads. The government can not stop the death squads as they are very popular among the Shia Arabs, The army and police go after the well guarded Sunni leaders, and arrest them on "suspicion of supporting terrorism."

Iran wants to make Iraq a province of Iran but for the most the Shia want no part of it. It is not a matter of religious dictatorship but of getting rid of the hated Sunni.

So, after investing so heavily in Iraq to train the Badr Brigade and finance the shia militia and Shia TV satellite in Iraq (the first TV to go up after the shock and awe operation in Iraq reported by Riverbend; you need to search her archives), do you really think they're going to help us in stabilizing Iraq? Common sense tells me the answer is a resounding 'NO'.

They have nothing to gain by talking to us regarding Iraq. Contacting the countries who actively fund and back shia militias is the height of naivete. And if they really wanted to stop the carnage in Iraq and help their fellow Moslem brethren, why do they have to wait for us and anyone else for that matter?

Do you see Syria and Iran or any of the other Middle Eastern countries offering their help or making any form of assistance to stabilizing Iraq? Why do they need to talk to US or Britain?

Clearly, Syria and especially Iran already exert considerable influence over Iraq as if Syria and Iran had territorial rights on Iraq and at this point I see no incentive for the Iranians to help Bush and Blair.

What both countries, Syria and Iran, should do is to stop their interference on Iraq's affairs. And for that they don't need our permission if they are genuinely concerned about the killings and carnage of their shia and sunni Moslem brothers.


A Jacksonian said...

I think we do see this in a like-wise fashion, in which Iran may have fantastical conceptions, but they take concrete steps based on those conceptions of the world.

Iran is using extra-territorial, non-Nation State militaries which I am calling their First and Second Foreign Legions, in Lebanon and Iraq, respectively, with a third forming up in South America. These are enactions of their foreign policy goals. They had to open up a second act in the Middle East because of the pressure that was beginning to be applied when the decades long stasis was abruptly taken away by the sudden removal of a strongman in Iraq. What no one has tried to do, however, is to effectively state what peace in the middle east might actually look like, so lacking that I put my own together and realized that in looking at it from those terms, the keys were starting to appear.

The outright brutality of Iran along with its use of Non-Nation State Actors and using NGO's to help sustain the previous stasis has been brought home in an iron-hard fashion to places such as Egypt and Jordan. Hezbollah is really not much of a warning to Israel, as it is putting the rest of the Middle East on notice that Iran will try and do *anything* to get its way. But they have also been hit, in return, that one cannot make an effective terrorist organization for illegitimate warfare AND a legitimate Foreign Legion capability at the same time. al Qaeda had to learn that little lesson early on in Afghanistan and sticks to its trade, but Iran has not learned that and are trying to force this concept of neither one nor the other and failing at both. You really do have a hard time treating those you arm as mere cannon fodder and then expect them to support each other in combat.

The huge stumbling block for Iran and Syria is the fact that, due to geography, Iraq is the central balancing point and stopping point of the entire Middle Eastern region from Sinai to India, from Indian Ocean to Russia, everything balances around Iraq. The US and MNF actual strategy in Iraq recognized many failings of the past in regards to the 'oil drop' concept of counter-insurgency and the lack of success of *that* wherever it has been tried, and that actual breathing space was necessary in order to get Iraq to start standing up as a real Nation. A supply lines and calming the calmest regions first, and targetting the Ba'athists allowed breathing space to form, while starting to limit violence to more telegenic areas in cities. Instead of haring all over the countryside after insurgents, the countryside is now turning *against* insurgents. This is a successful application of what the US learned in the 1901-13 campaign in the Philippines.

So, with all of that said and my understanding of same, my solution to actually stabilize Iraq which some few have found to be rather nasty, should be of no surprise. Because the path to that stability, to get that concept of Peace moving, goes right straight through Damascus and adds regions to Iraq to shift it to a more properly balanced state that can only be a *secular* powerhouse, but never a *theocratic* one. From there the next step to finally dealing a harsh blow and starting the long term end of this nonsense, is obvious, too.

So, long-winded as is usual for me, but providing reading material to help back up points is necessary.

I thank you for your visit to my site and shall check back when health and mind allow.

SERENDIP said...

Thank you for stopping by and for your informative, comprehensive, and brilliant analysis. I look forward to your future visits.