The Silk Road
to: Alan Peters
CHINA - USA - BEHIND THE SCENES STRUGGLE
"Does the Mass Media have a total disconnect, or is being fearfully discreet for once, or simply not connecting the dots?
Quite recently, sources told a radio show host that China had threatened to ruin the USA economy by selling off a Trillion dollars they hold in their reserves. (Posted on this site at the link shown immediately below and also on World Tribune for subscribers).
http://noiri.blogspot.com/2006/12/china-to-dump-one-trillion-dollars-in.html
Other reports have more recently stated, after UN sanctions were approved against Iran, the USA is taking a hard look at putting sanctions on a huge Chinese oil and gas company, Sineco, which has signed a $16 Billion contract with Iran for development of Iran's natural gas fields.
This contract is part of an overall $300 billion agreement entered into by Sineco with Iran, which virtually puts control of exploration, development, improvement, upkeep, refining etc., completely into Chinese hands.
Plus the critical expansion of refining gasoline capabilities to cover the Islamic Regime's current import of about 45% of Iran's automobile fuel needs.
I believe the USA sent such a top level financial and economic team to China to discuss the effect the embargo on assisting Iran's oil and gas industry would have on Sineco operations and contracts and were promptly slapped with the Chinese threat to ruin America (and subsequently the world and China's own ) economy by crashing the value of the dollar.
Somewhat like Russia, China could "withdraw from the world economy " and survive. Not as the rising power it is now but at the low level of living standards most of the population endures.
The USA, on the other hand, with high living and quality of life standards to which Americans have grown accustomed, could not weather the global storm the dollar crash would bring.
It is not unconceivable that China would flood Iran with Chinese military forces to "protect its national interests" - using the excuse of "maintaining stability in the region". The quality and equipment of those forces - compard to sheer numbers - is almost irrelevant.
The argument that China does not have the capability to move large numbers of troops is almost laughable as they can reach Iran from various, not always unfriendly, directions. Which transit route would want to go head to head to oppose China?
Iran's Mullahs would probably side with China and welcome the "take over" to spite America. Informing their own populace that this would be in their best interests. And as usual, violently suppress dissent. This time, not with Arab mercenaries of the Bassiji suppression divisions, but with eager Chinese assistance."
Remember the Silk Road? 
Let me introduce you to a new book by John Garver: China And Iran: Ancient Partners in a Post-imperial World . China stands as Iran's staunchest ally on the UN Security Council, as well as its primary source of advanced technology and military assistance, built on centuries of close economic relations. Successive governments of these two ancient and proud nations have reaffirmed their common interests in seeking an Asia free of Soviet expansionism and U.S. unilateral domination. John W. Garver charts the evolution of Sino-Iranian relations through several phases, including Iran under the shah, the 1979 revolution, and the Iran-Iraq war. China and Iran also explores the contentious debates over Iran's nuclear programs and China's role in assisting these programs and supporting Iran's efforts to modernize its military and oil industry infrastructure.
ABF, for the promotion of human rights and democracy in Iran
1 comment:
China does have a problem which a military deployment would make them vulnerable: North Korea. Now, although the Magic Kingdom of Mr. Kim is a joke militarily, it has done a few things that are a bit of an eye-opener. No, not the nuclear tests... their biggest threat is starvation. North Korea, evidently, is so down and out, that when food aid rolled into it on trains from China, they not only took the food, but, took the trains. China is in one real bind here, as North Korea can use one very real threat to destabilize China.
It isn't nuclear. Not even military. Mr. Kim can say the following and China will then face a huge problem: "Either feed my people, or I will open the borders and let them go to China to be fed." Now, a few million suddenly appearing people all needing to be fed is a huge problem for China as its infrastructure is pretty much trying to cope with the population it has while trying to expand and keep liberties quashed. It needs a military presence to be able to remind Mr. Kim that it is, indeed, China. If they ship off part of the People's Army to Iran... they aren't at home, which Mr. Kim will see as weakness and a leverage point. China, as a People and a Nation, have *always* had a problem letting their Army go outside the borders: it might not come back, it reduces the authoritarian power structure, and it might come back with their guns pointed at the government. Plus, they will not be available to stop insurgents, especially Muslim ones, in the Western Provinces and possibly feel more heat on Tibet. This is not a straight-forward zero-sum game for China, and gaining oil but having it under the control of an Army that realizes it *does* control the lifeblood of the Nation suddenly puts the Government at the mercy of the Army. Not the other way around.
So, China, by having no real plans for North Korea have now put their Nation at the mercy of the splendid Mr. Kim. Remove enough troops to do something in Iran and Mr. Kim gets an upper hand. Plus the Army might get fun ideas based on the population it is being drawn from... In the West we do forget the problems that Authoritarian and Totalitarian regimes have by not being democratic. Their entire viewpoint on military power and might is tempered by a number of factors that a democratic state doesn't need to worry about. Basically, name the last time China *ever* staged a military campaign outside of its immediate borders in the last 5,000 years and see what was necessary for it to do so. Immediate border territories do not count... need to get hundreds or thousands of miles away to start understanding how the old outlook of China still exists to this day.
Saying you will put lots of troops in Iran is one thing.
Being able to do it *and* stay in power is something else completely.
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