Future of European-Iranian Relations

Joschka Fischeris, former foreign minister of Germany and a visiting professor at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University sends the Jihadist Islamic Republic occuyping Iran the most sobering warning and assessment to date:

Europe developed the balance of power system after our religious wars in 1648. And we experienced its benefits and its nightmares over the centuries and finally its definitive collapse in two world wars between 1914 and 1945. My country challenged this European system twice in the first half of the twentieth century. At the beginning of the last century, Germany was the leading power of Europe, but we made the wrong decisions and ended in a complete disaster. What was our strategic mistake? We followed hegemonial aspirations that relied on military might and prestige, and we miscalculated the anti-hegemonial instincts of Europe. And twice we underestimated the strategic potential, the power, and the political will and decisiveness of the United States. Otto von Bismarck, perhaps the greatest German statesman of the nineteenth century, defined Germany’s role in his century as either “hammer or anvil.” In the second half of the twentieth century, it turned out that he was completely wrong, because this had never been a serious alternative. A new European system based on a peaceful balance of interests, common European institutions in the framework of the EU, and guaranteed security, produced by NATO and the transatlantic alliance, completely changed the course of German and European history for the better.

Ladies and gentlemen, It seems to me that today Iran is confronted with the question of whether your country will follow hegemonial aspirations or become a driving force for peace, stability, and progress in the Middle East. Iran cooperated with the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq, based on its national interest. The result was not very promising from an Iranian point of view, I agree. But the situation has changed for the better, as the common offer reflects. And if we can move forward in the nuclear area to reach agreement, I believe that the implications of such progress will be positive and far-reaching. And I strongly believe that a “Grand Bargain” is achievable, that is, a nuclear and a regional security agreement in exchange for full economic, technological, and scientific cooperation; full political normalization; and security guaranties. But all depends now on the decision of the Islamic Republic of Iran. A policy of nuclearization, of confrontation with the UN, and of destabilization of the Middle East will lead us into a dark tunnel, in which I can see no light on the other side.

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