Slow Dancing in a Burning Room!

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment looks at the future of Iranian-American relations, Iran's vulnerabilities, and whether we might one day see liberals ruling in Tehran.
Michael Young

Reason: Best of Enemies?

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Reason: There is talk that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wants to leave as her legacy an opening of relations with Iran. How far is she hoping to go, and what signs have you seen of an American change on this front?

Karim Sadjadpour: My sense from talking to senior State Department officials is that Rice and her team are genuinely interested in achieving a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran, but their expectations are modest. They would like to calm the nuclear row and get Iran to play a constructive role in Iraq. Given the depth of mutual mistrust and ill-will they're not expecting to exchange ambassadors anytime soon. However, one thing they talk about is the opening of a U.S. interests section in Tehran which would handle consular and visa affairs, similar to the interest section that Iran has in Washington.

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Reason: Is Iranian society as fed up with the clerical regime as some outside the country would like to believe, or is the leadership solidly in place?

Karim Sadjadpour: It sounds contradictory, but I think the answer to both questions is "yes." Discontent is deep and widespread and transcends socio-economic class, age, ethnicity, and religiosity. No matter where you go or to whom you talk, it is extremely rare to find anyone who will say: "I am happy with the state of the country, the mullahs are doing a decent job."
That said, there is currently no alternative whatsoever to the Islamic Republic. Having experienced a revolution that brought disillusionment, followed by the eight-year war with Iraq, the unmet expectations of the Khatami era, and the horrors of what is currently taking place in Iraq, people are increasingly depoliticized and wary of political agitation.

Reason: Is a liberal Iran possible in the next decade?

Karim Sadjadpour: I think a more liberal Iran is certainly possible, even probable. The most important external factor is U.S.-Iran relations. When and if Iran opens up to the U.S., it will be much more difficult to hold back the tremendous popular will to live in a more liberal society. The Islamic Republic in its current form can only persist in isolation.