Monday, June 25, 2007

Does Iran understand the game it is playing?

SUNONLINE: IRANIAN forces are being choppered over the Iraqi border to bomb Our Boys, intelligence chiefs say.

Military experts claim this worrying move means we are at WAR with Iran in all but name.
Last night an intelligence source told The Sun: “It is an extremely alarming development and raises the stakes considerably. In effect, it means we are in a full on war with Iran — but nobody has officially declared it.


“We have hard proof that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps have crossed the border to attack us.
“It is very hard for us to strike back. All we can do is try to defend ourselves. We are badly on the back foot.”


Our Boys picked up the Iranian helicopters on radar crossing into empty desert.
The sightings have been confirmed to The Sun by very senior military sources.


Iran is making a mistake that may lead the Middle East into a broader conflict. A military strike, meanwhile, would solve the regime's major problem: how to gain popular support and stay in power. Any attack risks causing nationalism in Iran to soar, rallying the public around a now-unpopular government. I will maintain, however, that the mullahs have no other choice but to play this dangerous game. The only way they can survive for another 28 years is to get into a conflict with the Coalition forces and play the nationalism card.

Link Via Frieda

3 comments:

programmer craig said...

I'm a little suspicious of this story, Serendip. I don't understand why the British didn't shoot those helicopters down, if they really saw them on radar. I'm going to see if I can find info on this story from any other source.

Anonymous said...

"...Any attack risks causing nationalism in Iran to soar, rallying the public around a now-unpopular government..."

This assessment is categorically false. The people are desperate for assistance with knocking out the regimes' main props, i.e. the IRGC and the Basiji.
I back up my claim by the observation that the regime did not manage any popular support while it had kidnapped the British sailors; please note that a small band of hireling rent-a-crowd thugs tossing eggs at the British Embassy does not represent popular support.

Anonymous said...

Progammer Craig,
I suspect the Brit's didn't bring these choppers down for the same reason that their sailors and marines surrendered to the IRGC thugs: Namely, the fact that, unfortunately, Great Britain has a de-escalatory posture towards the Islamic Republic of Iran. Huge f**king mistake, almost as big as the one made by Neville Chamberlain.