Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Forging an Iran Strategy

This is a 27 page report ,Convened by American Foreign Policy Council
and McCormick Tribune Foundation. (read in full--pdf file)

Report of the Working Group on Iran’s

The global threat posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran is mounting. In
defiance of United Nations (UN) resolutions, the Iranian regime is developing
a nuclear weapon capability, and has engaged in a campaign of
systematic deception vis-à-vis the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
about the scope and pace of its nuclear effort.

Iran is also actively expanding it sballistic missile arsenal, and will soon be capable of holding at risk targets far beyond the Middle East. At the same time, Iran has become a serial proliferator,
demonstrating both the capacity and the intent to transfer WMD technology and
know-how, including those related to nuclear weapons, to rogue states and terrorist
organizations alike.

The Iranian regime remains the world’s leading state
sponsor of terrorism, fueling the activities of proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas
and insurgents in Iraq. Through reenergized diplomacy, the Islamic Republic is
expanding its influence in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Latin America as well,
and is actively attempting to forge anti-American coalitions in those regions.
So far, however, the United States has not formulated a comprehensive strategy
to address this complex challenge.

Rather, Washington has wedded itself to a—and deeply flawed—diplomatic process aimed at addressing just one aspect of the contemporary Iranian threat: its nuclear program. In doing so,
the U.S. has placed its reliance on the United Nations system, as well as its allies
in Europe, none of whom have shown much appetite for confronting Iran over the
nuclear issue. Yet both Russia and China, which have extensive economic, political
and military ties to Iran, remain an impediment to meaningful diplomatic and
economic efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and can be
expected to continue obstructing forceful action against their client state.
Instead of relying on diplomacy alone, the United States should seek a broader
strategy—one designed to prevent Iran from going nuclear, contain its regional
ambitions, and encourage a fundamental political transformation within its borders.
In order to achieve these objectives, the United States must:
• Expand American and allied intelligence capabilities to better gauge the scope
and pace of the Iranian threat, and which responses will be most effective in
countering it
• Exploit existing vulnerabilities in the Iranian economy through targeted financial
measures outside the confines of the United Nations
• Degrade and deny Iran the ability to sponsor international terrorism through more
aggressive U.S. and allied counterproliferation, interdictions and covert action

Executive Summary

aimed at neutralizing or eliminating Iranian-supported radicals responsible for acts
of terrorism
• Enhance outreach to the Iranian people by improving the clarity of U.S. strategic
communications through better programming, better content and greater clarity of
message about America’s commitment to fundamental change in Iran
• Reestablish credibility vis-à-vis the Iranian regime by making clear, both in word and
in deed, that continued rogue behavior will carry adverse consequences, up to and
including the use of force

• Build countervailing coalitions, including with the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, to constrain Iran’s regional freedom of action through increased intelligence-sharing,stepped-up counterterrorism coordination and greater military-to-military interaction

• Promote fundamental change within the Islamic Republic through greater outreach
to—and financial and logistical resources for—opposition forces now active inside
and outside of the country
• Build effective homeland and missile defenses to defend the U.S., its allies and its
deployed forces against the nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities that Iran is
acquiring
• Curb Iranian influence in Iraq through better border security measures and initiatives
intended to marginalize Iranian-supported militias and activities there
• Map out a full spectrum of military options, ranging from aggressive covert action
against Iranian agents and proxies to extensive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities
and ballistic missile sites

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