Friday, January 12, 2007

This Civilization is ours to lose!

This post is dedicated to a truly gracious Southern Bell, Gayle.

I've been wracking my brain for almost a year now to fathom the rational behind the Democrat's 'cut and run' attitude (yes, the war was badly executed and we have made innumerable errors) while they know the consequence are catastrophic. Defying logic, democrats counterintuitively want us to lose and surrender and they think it should be our final solution. They want us to give a terrorist state sponsor of terrorism, which has been at war with us since 1979 and has declared their intention of destroying us at every turn, “a grand bargain” and a nuclear bomb. This is their solution to achieve the so-called ‘stability’. Does “stability doctrine” really relevant or would it really work in the age of globalization and proximity and a post-colonial era?

Does this sound like a paranoid emanation of schizoid brain?



The frontiers of our security no longer stop at the Channel. What happens in the Middle East affects us. What happens in Pakistan, or Indonesia, or in the attenuated struggles for territory and supremacy in Africa for example, in Sudan or Somalia--the new frontiers for our security are global...It has taken a generation for the enemy to grow. It will in all probability, take a generation to defeat.



To me, an Iranian-American who can’t be fooled by the MSM about the nature of the Iranian regime (sorry, I can’t hyperlink the content of my cortical brain to all of my liberal readers who are obsessed with getting their facts from Google) no matter how many smiling mullahs (see murderous Khatamis visit to US) they invite to the National Cathedral in Washington to present a kinder and gentler Islamic Republic of Thugs, all of this seem like a sick joke. So, why such a systematic attempt to distort, deny (Kossacks call it "terrorism canard"), sugar code sober assessments, minimize the truth about the Islamic militancy that has been sweeping the world since 1979 and funded by the Islamic Republic of Kleptocrats? Why are the democrats rooting for us to fail in Iraq at the expense of our national and strategic security and perhaps the end of our Western Civilization, as we know it? I think I have finally figure it out; in a nutshell: Democrats are control freaks.

To begin with, they are consumed with hatred for Bush and second, they are not in complete control of all 3 branches of government. Conceivably, they would get on board with the war on terror if the nation elects a democrat as our commander-in-chief in 2008.

Reasons for US to stay in Iraq are simple and transparent to those who understand our way of life and regard it as sacred as I do. I confess our way of life may not be perfect but it's the best any society has ever created. I see this ideological war not as a ‘clash of civilization’ because civilized society don’t clash. I see this ideological conflict as a continuation of an old struggle between domination of the world by the corrupt Petro-Islamic clergies who have no skill other than brainwashing poor, uneducated masses into drones--who will ensure their cash flow by blowing themselves up in hopes of debauchery in the after-life-- and the modern world that has already gone through this stage in its history. Andrew Coyne explains it much better than I ever can:

What seems to be happening isn't so much a clash of civilizations, as it is a clash of concepts of civilisation: Much of the Islamic world remains largely what philosophers call a "perfectionist" society. On perfectionist views, it is the function of society to promote the moral and spiritual perfection of each person, according to a shared conception of the good life. In a perfectionist society, there is no distinction between church and state, or between law, religion, and morality.The West – or perhaps better, Christendom -- used to be a perfectionist society, oriented around a common and publicly enforced vision of human excellence. That's why we felt the need for things like Crusades and Inquisitions. Then we had schisms, reformations, and whole lot of religious warfare. As Christendom became the West, it (gradually) ceased to be a perfectionist society organized around common moral values (“the good”) and became a society organized around certain liberal principles (“the right.”)What is important to note is that our ancestors in the West didn’t choose our liberal freedoms because they woke up one day and decided that they preferred liberalism over perfectionism. It is that they eventually realized – after centuries of fighting about it – that the only alternative to religious toleration was perpetual war. But religious toleration is the thin edge of the liberal wedge. Once you allow a man to say that he has different Gods than you or that there is no God at all, it is hard to set any principled limit on what anyone can say, about anything at all.Looked at it from this perspective, Fukuyama’s thesis of the "End of History" comes across not as a final triumphalist victory for the West, but as the inevitable consequence of the exhaustion of reasonable alternatives. Liberalism isn't a reflection of our deepest values, but a second-best regime more or less forced upon the societies of the West.This is why, when the protesting Muslims carry placards that read “damn your freedoms,” they are missing the point. Not everyone here likes the consequences of our freedoms, either. It isn’t that we chose liberalism because we thought it would be nice to have high divorce rates, huge drug problems, a debased popular culture and a general lack of respect and civility. That’s just what we’ve ended up with, because the cost of clamping down on these things is too high.Bernard Lewis and other commentators on Islam like to note that Islam has never had a proper reformation or enlightenment. Yet unlike the West, which more or less had to arrive at liberalism by groping through the solution space, Islam has our experience as a guide… It would be extremely unfortunate if the Islamic world had to go through what Europe went through a few hundred years ago. It would be nice if we could just point to our experience and say, look, we tried all the alternatives and they don’t work. This is where you are going to end up, so why not just get started. But that obviously won’t work, because this would be to posit a “stages of civilization” view, which is exactly the sort of moral superiority and arrogance that the muslims are protesting.Where that leaves the world, is very hard to say.



Actually, it’s not that hard to predict where the world is heading given historical facts on Islam. My answer is not for the ones with delicate constitution to accept. In this clash of ideas only one will survive, the other would be completely destroyed, subjugated and compulsory re-educated, as was done to Nazi Germany and imperial Japan and currently in Iran [see systematic Islamization (aka subjugation via Sharia) and Arabization of Iran by the mullahs since 1979 and the Islamic conquest of Iran in the six century]. No peaceful coexistence of West with militant Islam is possible, and all analogies with Cold War are self-deception. Eschatological death-cultists cannot be deterred; they can be only exterminated. This is Manichean war, indeed, just as WWII was. God Bless America.

Read more!

Ahmadinejad, You've Got Mail



Gateway pundit: Ahmadinejad heard back from his people this week... One million of them


Amman, Jordan, Jan. 10 – Some one million Iranians living in Khuzestan, south-west Iran, wrote letters of complaint to hard-line Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad during his visit to the poverty-stricken province, a Kuwaiti daily reported on Tuesday.

The daily al-Qabas quoted media sources as saying that the presidential office had so far opened 300,000 of the letters.

Most of the letters focused on the issue of unemployment, the report said.

Ahwaz, the Arab-dominated provincial capital of oil-rich Khuzestan Province, has been the scene of unremitting anti-government protests since early 2005.

Read more!

BREAKING NEWS - !!! TOP ISLAMIC REGIME STRATEGIST CAPTURED IN IRAQ



Alan Peters: "Reports from Tehran state that Iran's top IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps) strategist, Hassan Abbasi, was captured in the recent raid on the Islamic Iran's office in Erbil, Iraq.

Referred to inside Islamic Iran as the Regime's version of Kissinger, Abbasi works directly as special advisor for the dead or dying Supreme Ruler in Iran - Ali Khamenei...Abbasi has in the past indicated he has already chosen and set up attack capability on a large number of targets inside the USA and said the Islamic regime would wipe out the Western culture - as a whole - and replace it with Islam.

He also runs the "Freedom Organizations" an umbrella group, coordinating and networking every "anti-imperialism" terror group around the globe. Be it the IRA in Ireland or Japanese cults or Puerto Rican gangs in the USA. Anyone who is ready to disrupt their country and governments through acts of terrorism."



Hassan Abbasi, the senior strategist for Iran’s Supreme Leader and Ahmadinejad has been captured in Iraq, according to unconfirmed received reports from independent reliable sources (see Iran Press News). If confirmed, his capture would be a major blow to the Iranian effort to support the insurgency in Iraq. He is believed to have been organizing the various insurgency groups under a common umbrella. It was reported that US forces captured Abbasi Thursday in the Iraqi city of Erbil.


In 2005 Iranian journalist Amir Taheri, reported that "to Iran's new ruling elite, Abbasi is the big strategic brain." "More and more officials quote him in meetings with foreign diplomats."


According to Taheri, Abbasi is the architect of the so-called "war preparation plan" currently under way in Iran.


"The Western man today has no stomach for a fight," Abbasi says. "This phenomenon is not new: All empires produce this type of man, the self-centered, materialist, and risk-averse man." Abbasi believes that the US intervention in Iraq, which involved "slightly higher risks" than the invasion of Afghanistan, was the very last of its kind.


For years now he has been preparing a new generation of Iran's Islamic revolutionaries for playing "chicken" with the United States. He is well known by US intelligence as a strategic military thinker and a popular speaker among Islamic Republic’s most radical gatherings.

Read more!

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Defiant Iranian woman in Shiraz stands up to a Female Moral Police

Read more!

Code Pinkos dismiss Ladies in White


Mundo

Cindy Sheehan & co. in Cuba refuse to visit Cuban political prisoners , proving that they don’t give a hoot about the human rights violations by the Castroite regime.

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Escalating the War Beyond Iraq?

The words in his speech seem to indicate that.


From Last night's Presidential speech:

"We're also taking other steps to bolster the security of Iraq and protect American interests in the Middle East. I recently ordered the deployment of an additional carrier strike group to the region. We will expand intelligence-sharing and deploy Patriot air defense systems to reassure our friends and allies. We will work with the governments of Turkey and Iraq to help them resolve problems along their border. And we will work with others to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons and dominating the region."



Much of the hardware (Patriot missiles and additional carrier strike force) being pushed into the Gulf has no possible use against Iraq. I assume that the mission is aimed at Iran. I'm not convinced a decision has been made to attack, but at the very least it is a show of force to let Iran know we mean business.

We have just raided the Iranian Consulate ( Den of Spies) in the Iraqi city of Arbil. US forces broke open the consulate's gates and detained five staff members. All I have to say is that it has taken us more than 27 years to respond in kind...

Read more!

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Just Another Ordinary Day in the Life of Islamic Thugs

Kidnapping in broad day light, Basiji Style... Potkin explains.

Why in the trunk? Is this a new trend?

For Farsi Readers: (Pasha from potkin's comment section says):
ـحکومت اسلامی اکنون ديگر به شکوفايی ولايی خود رسيده است. آخوند خمينی در انديشه های سياسی خود ولی فقيه را به چوپان و مردم را به گوسفند تشبيه کرده است، حال اين آدم ربايان که به نظر می رسد از سربازان گمنام امام زمان هستند، آموزشهای آن آخوند را به جد گرفته اند و با آدميان، حتا اگر جرمی مرتکب شده باشند، مانند گوسفند رفتار می کنند و آنان را به صندوق عقب اتومبيل می اندازند و پيدا نيست که به کدام سياه چال و يا کشتارگاهی می برند.ـو در اين ميان، چند روز پيش، داستان مضحک و عجيب و غريبی رخ می دهد. بانويی حقوقدان که برندة جايزة صلح نوبل هستند در مصاحبه ای با تلويزيون صدای آمريکا می فرمايند که دموکراسی ايالات متحدة آمريکا فقط يک پله از ايران بالاتر است.ـاکنون که به آدم ربايی و عکسهای آن نگاه می کنم و به سخنان خانم حقوقدان می انديشم، يا بايد به عقل و خرد خود شک کنم يا گمان کنم که ايشان نيز به آخوند خمينی اعتقاد پيدا کرده اند و می انديشند که آدمها گوسفند هستند و می توان آنان را مانند گوسفند به صندوق عقب اتومبيل انداخت و با اين وجود دموکراسی را خيلی از دموکراسی آمريکا دور نمی دانند. و نيز اينکه آدمها گوسفند هستند و هر حرف سبک و بی ارزشی را می توان تحويل آنان داد، بی آنکه آنان متوجه سبکی و بی ارزشی آن حرف ها بشوند.ـبا توجه به اينکه عقل و خرد من سرجايش است، پس گمان من در بارة احتمال دوم درست است.

Read more!

Another look at the end of Petro-Isalm in Iran


Another piece in the series of 'Eventual collapse of Petro-Islam' in Iran by Int'l Herald Tribune. Of course, I don't agree with the conclusion but the article is worth reading in full. Here are some excerpts:


...For the mullahs, the short-run political return on investment in oil production is zero. They are reluctant to wait the 4 to 6 years it takes for a drilling investment to yield revenue. So rather than reinvest to refresh production, the Islamic Republic starves its petroleum sector, diverting oil profits to a vast, inefficient welfare state....

For a world rattled by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's bellicosity, Iran's petroleum problems sound like good news. The UN Security Council's newfound willingness to confront Iran over weapons development also seems a welcome sign.
Yet the economic damage Iran inflicts on itself is far worse than anything the meaningless UN sanctions could accomplish. Sanctions might actually worsen the position of Iran's adversaries if Tehran were to succeed in portraying them as the cause of its economic woes.
The mullahs are doing a good job of destroying Iran's economy. They should be left alone to complete their work.

Attacking Iran would allow the regime to escape responsibility for the economic disaster it created. Worse, an attack could unite Iran behind the clerical terror-sponsors whose grasp on power may be slipping. For these reasons, the best policy towards Iran may be to do nothing at all.

Read more!

72nd Birthday Celebration at her gravesite!



The Quintessential Iranian Female Poet (1935-1967)

She would have been 72 years old if she had not been killed in a car accident in 1967. Or perhaps, the mullahs would have killed her. Her fans celebrate her birthday on her gravesite with a pineapple cake. An extremely small number of Iranian women have achieved anything in Iran outside of the home without dependence upon a relationship with a man or male patronage. The best known among them is the poet Forugh Farrokhzad (1935-1967), the most famous woman in the history of Persian literature.





Another Birth
By: Forough Farrokhzad

My whole being is a dark chant
which will carry you
perpetuating you
to the dawn of eternal growths and blossoming
in this chant
I sighed you sighed
in this chant
I grafted you to the tree to the water to the fire.

Life is perhaps
a long street through which a woman holding
a basket passes every day
Life is perhaps
a rope with which a man hangs himself from a branch
life is perhaps
a child returning home from school.

Life is perhaps
lighting up a cigarette
in the narcotic repose between two love-makings
or the absent gaze of a passerby
who takes off his hat to another passerby
with a meaningless smile and a good morning.

Life is perhaps that enclosed moment
when my gaze destroys itself
in the pupil of your eyes
and it is in the feeling
which I will put into the Moon's impression
and the Night's perception.

In a room as big as loneliness
my heartwhich is as big as love
looks at the simple pretexts of its happiness
at the beautiful decay of flowers in the vase
at the sapling you planted in our garden
and the song of canaries
which sing to the size of a window.

Ah this is my lot
this is my lot
my lot is a sky which is taken away
at the drop of a curtain
my lot is going down a flight of disused stairs
a regain something amid putrefaction and nostalgia
my lot is a sad promenade in the garden of memories
and dying in the grief of a voice which tells me
I love your hands.

I will plant my hands in the garden
I will grow I know I know I know
and swallows will lay eggs
in the hollow of my ink-stained hands.

I shall wear
a pair of twin cherries as ear-rings
and I shall put dahlia petals on my finger-nails
there is an alley
where the boys who were in love with me
still loiter with the same unkempt hair
thin necks and bony legs
and think of the innocent smiles of a little girl
who was blown away by the wind one night.

There is an alley
which my heart has stolen
from the streets of my childhood.

The journey of a form along the line of time
inseminating the line of time with the form
a form conscious of an image
coming back from a feast in a mirror
And it is in this way
that someone dies
and someone lives on.

No fisherman shall ever find a pearl in a small brook
which empties into a pool.

I know a sad little fairy
who lives in an oceanand ever so softly
plays her heart into a magic flute
a sad little fairy
who dies with one kiss each night
and is reborn with one kiss each dawn.

Read more!

Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Nazanin's Last Hope!


Former Miss Canada, Nazanin Afshin-Jam, hopes to get Iranian woman off death row

A Canadian Newspaper reports:..They have one thing in common Nazanin Fatehi and Nazanin Afshin-Jam share a name.
But while Fatehi waits on Iran's version of death row, Afshin-Jam, a former Miss Canada pageant winner, is working to have the Iranian girl's sentence overturned, doing much of the work from a computer in the bedroom of her apartment here.On Wednesday, both women will find out if Fatehi will live or die.
"She is always with me. She is always on my mind. I've been nervous about this for the last 10 months," Afshin-Jam said Sunday.

From Potkin's blog:

Thank you to all the wonderful people who have been signing the petition at http://www.helpnazanin.com/ and have been spreading the word about the injustice that Nazanin Fatehi is facing in Iran.Many of you are asking what you can do further?1. Learn about the case and watch a 30 min documentary called "The

Tale of Two Nazanins" at http://www.bodog.tv/
2. Sign the Petition at http://www.helpnazanin.com/
3. Fax or Email a personal message to the Iranian heads of state and Head of the Judiciary pleading with them to release Nazanin. (try to be diplomatic and do not use any profane language) For an idea of what to say you can watch my plea at : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYOA9l5rPPc.

Send your messages to:
AYATOLLAH KHAMENEISupreme Leader of the Islamic RepublicEmail: http://us.f515.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=info@leader.irEmail: http://us.f515.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=istiftaa@wilayah.orgFax: 00 98 251 7 774 2228
************************************
PRESIDENT AHMADNEJADPresident of Islamic RepublicEmail: http://us.f515.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=dr-ahmadinejad@president.irEmail through website: www.president.ir/emailPhone: 00 98 21 6 649 5880
************************************
4. Call your local Iranian Embassy To locate it go to www.irantravelingcenter.com/embassy.htm.
Iranian Embassy - United Kingdomhttp://us.f515.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=info@iran-embassy.org.ukIranian Embassy - Canadahttp://us.f515.mail.yahoo.com/ym/Compose?To=ambassador@iranembassy.org
5. Tell your local media (Newspapers, TV, radio stations, magazines, on-line news)
6. Tell everyone you know (family, friends, schools, blogs, websites) and direct them to http://www.helpnazanin.com/
WE MUST HURRY THERE IS ONLY 1 DAY LEFT!!!!
Peace and love,
Nazanin Afshin-Jam

Read more!

Will Cindy Sheehan visit Cuba's Prison?

This post is dedicated to Joe Gringo (a great blog to visit)

A representative of the Cuban Ladies in White (Wives of jailed dissidents) has challenged and called on Cindy Sheehan to visit the Cuban prisons where political prisoners are held in horrific living conditions for thinking differently than the regime in power.

Read more!

It's about Time!

Well, it looks like the Islamic Republic of Iran's Al-Quds Force (Qudos=Jeresalem. Al quods is a branch of IRGC) has been very busy in Iraq and has stepped up it's sponsorship of terrrorism into high gears,"There is a sharp surge in Iran's sponsorship of terrorism and sectarian violence in the past few months," said Mr. Jafarzadeh at a conference organized by the Iran Policy Committee"...Sustaining such a large-scale terror network demands huge sums of money. According to MeK sources, Gen. Abtahi "sends millions and millions of dollars from Ahwaz into Iraq every month." The money is transported to Iraq by a special courier who picks up the funds in Ahwaz and carries them across the Shalamche border where "affiliate" border guards whisk him through. Gen. McInerney urged George Bush to confront Iran's role directly if he wants to stabilize Iraq. "Just sending more troops to Iraq doesn't solve the problem unless you attack this problem [of Iran's involvement]," Gen. McInerney said. "And it must be attacked in a covert way in Iran. We're going against a very formidable enemy that thinks we will not respond."

Given the mayhem that Iran is causing in Iraq, it's about time to deal with the cause and not the symptomps. Finally, the Bush adminstration has taken a few steps in the right direction. Raw Story reports that the nomination of retired Vice Admiral John Michael McConnell to be Director of National Intelligence is part of a new approach to not allow the Islamic Republic continue to destablize Iraq with impunity. I don't believe we're too late in reversing the tide in our favor if we seriously tackle the root cause, which is Iran and not let the politicians to run the war. And once we do that we don't have to worry about leaving Iraq and handing Iraq to Iran on a silver platter.

Read more!

Monday, January 08, 2007

Iran has the highest rate of brain Drain


BBC: A year ago, the International Monetary Fund said Iran had the highest rate of brain drain of 90 countries it measured.

"We work from morning till night and still we cannot live off the money we make but over there we can have a better life with less hours of work," said Shabanzade, a hairdresser in Tehran who wants to emigrate.

Millions are being educated, only for a large proportion to leave"There are economic problems and no job security and no freedom," says another student who hopes to go to Australia.
The teacher, who lived in England for many years, says most of his students dream of a better lifestyle abroad...

Add that to the ineptness of the criminal mullahs in running the government; their klepotcracy of epic proportion while bribing the Basiji population and IRGC (The welfare kings and queens), the future doesn't seem too bright for the Islamic republic of Oppression.

Read more!

The Palm Island in Dubai


The Palm Islands in Dubai. New Dutch dredging technology was used to create these massive man made islands. They are the largest artificial islands in the world and can be seen from space. Three of these Palms will be made with the last one being the largest of them all.

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Saturday, January 06, 2007

Margaret Beckett: Iran's Moment of Choice


British foreign secretary: Last month, the UN Security Council agreed - by consensus - to adopt sanctions against Iran for the first time.

This is not, as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad likes to claim, a conspiracy by "bullying powers" to deny Iran nuclear energy. As we said last summer, we are ready to help Iran develop a modern nuclear power industry if it shows that its intentions are peaceful. These sanctions will not affect Iran's construction of a nuclear power station at Bushehr.

Our concern is not about nuclear energy but nuclear weapons.
Iran has failed over many years to meet its obligations and has refused to take simple steps that would help show its nuclear ambitions are peaceful.

At the heart of the problem is Iran's uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. Low-enriched uranium can be used as fuel for nuclear power stations. But the same facilities can produce high-enriched uranium, fissile material suitable for nuclear weapons. And a heavy water reactor being built at Arak, for which Iran has given no convincing civilian rationale, could be used to produce plutonium.

Iran began building these facilities in secret. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) forced Teheran to admit to their existence in 2003.

Since then, despite the IAEA's efforts, many questions remain. Why is Iran's military involved in a supposedly civilian program? Why will Iran not give a full account of its dealings with AQ Khan's network, which helped North Korea and Libya with their secret nuclear weapons programs? Why did it experiment on Polonium-210, which has no use in generating electricity, but can set off a nuclear explosion?

The possibility that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons presents a challenge we cannot ignore.
MANY COUNTRIES in the Middle East - not just Israel - feel threatened by Iran's increasingly malign role in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. They wonder how much worse it would be if Ahmadinejad acquired a nuclear arsenal. I find it unthinkable that a man who questions the existence of the Holocaust should ever possess the weapons to repeat it.
Iran's actions also pose a serious threat to the non-proliferation system. If we let Iran cheat its way to a nuclear bomb, how many other countries will try to, or feel they need to?
For over three years, the IAEA Board has called on Iran to suspend the most sensitive activities, while we, together with France and Germany, have tried to persuade Iran to agree an acceptable long-term solution.

In August 2005, Iran broke off the negotiations. It first resumed uranium "conversion" and then, last February, enrichment.

The UK has worked closely with China, Russia and the US, encouraging Iran to reinstate the suspension and return to talks.
The measures the IAEA Board and Security Council have asked for would not affect Iran's pursuit of nuclear energy. Iran does not need to enrich uranium to generate electricity. Suspension would however give us confidence that Iran is not seeking the know-how to make fissile material for weapons.

In June 2006, Britain presented Iran far-reaching proposals and said that if Iran were prepared to take the steps required by the IAEA Board, we would hold off further action in New York.
BY ANY standards, our proposals are generous. They offer Iran, in a long-term agreement, everything it would need to develop a modern nuclear power industry, such as help building power stations, guaranteed supplies of fuel and cooperation on nuclear research. I
Iran would also get trade benefits that would stimulate the investment it needs to provide jobs for a growing population. In a historic decision, the US said it would join any talks and consider, in a final agreement, lifting sanctions on Iran for the first time since 1979 in areas where Iran's needs are most acute, such as civilian aircraft and IT (read more...)

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KHEJALAT!!!!!!!!!! (SHAME)

Rank Country GDP (PPP)
$ per capita
1 Luxembourg $69,800
2 Norway $42,364
3 United States $41,399
4 Ireland $40,610
5 Iceland $35,115
6 Denmark $34,740
7 Canada $34,273
8 Hong Kong $33,479
9 Austria $33,432
10 Switzerland $32,571
11 Qatar $31,397
12 Belgium $31,244
13 Finland $31,208
14 Australia $30,897
15 Netherlands 30,862
16 Japan 30,615
17 Germany 30,579
18 United Kingdom 30,436
19 Sweden 29,926
20 France 29,187
21 Italy 28,534
22 Singapore 28,368
23 United Arab Emirates 27,957
24 Republic of China (Taiwan) 27,721
25 Spain 26,320
26 Brunei 24,948
27 New Zealand 24,797
28 Israel 23,474
29 Netherlands Antilles, Netherlands 22,750
30 Greece 22,392
31 Slovenia 21,808
32 Bahrain 21,565
33 Cyprus 21,177
34 South Korea 20,590
35 The Bahamas 20,076
36 Malta 19,739
37 Portugal 19,335
38 Czech Republic 18,341
39 Barbados 17,610
40 Oman 16,862
41 Hungary 16,823
42 Equatorial Guinea 16,507
43 Estonia 16,414
44 Kuwait 16,301
45 Slovakia 16,041
46 Saudi Arabia 15,229
47 Saint Kitts and Nevis 14,649
48 Trinidad and Tobago 14,258
49 Lithuania 14,158
50 Argentina 14,109
51 Poland 12,994
52 Mauritius 12,895
53 Latvia 12,666
54 Croatia 12,324
55 South Africa 12,161
56 Seychelles 12,059
57 Chile 11,937
58 Libya 11,624
59 Antigua and Barbuda 11,523
60 Botswana 11,410
61 Malaysia 11,201
62 Russia 11,041
63 Uruguay 10,720
64 Costa Rica 10,434
65 Mexico 10,186
66 Bulgaria 9,223
67 Romania 8,785
68 Brazil 8,561
69 Thailand 8,368
70 Kazakhstan 8,318
71 Tunisia 8,255
72 Grenada 8,198
73 Turkmenistan 8,098
74 Iran 7,980
75 Turkey 7,950
76 Tonga 7,935
77 Belize 7,832
78 Republic of Macedonia 7,748
79 Belarus 7,711
80 Maldives 7,675
81 Dominican Republic 7,627
82 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 7,493
83 Namibia 7,478
84 Colombia 7,326
85 Panama 7,283
86 Ukraine 7,213
87 People's Republic of China 7,198
88 Algeria 7,189
89 Gabon 7,055
90 Lebanon 6,681
91 Dominica 6,520

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Eventual collapse of Iran's oil industry: Repost














Did a basic overview and some analysis of the report and came to a few conclusions.

First, the regime has not been investing enough to keep their basic infrastructure going. Their income from oil is just enough to cover maintenance, but not future investments. So, by trying to bring up the old maritime platforms as producers, they are actively removing money from the maintenance budget.

Second, the entire petroleum infrastructure is going to pot. The very pinnacle and most complex piece of the infrastructure is the refinery: if you do nothing else, you keep the refineries going as the most value added is there. Any modern, well run refinery system does not *lose* oil. The entire supply and refining system in Iran is losing 3-4% of its oil above and beyond the depletion rate of its field capacity. The added subsidies to gasoline and natural gas are killing the refineries, which cannot sustain themselves on that economic footing without other monetary inputs. The natural gas problem is even worse, as it is the #1 easiest and cheapest method of 'rejuvenating' old oil fields. Plus Iran is hopping to let liquid natural gas futures and contracts. To do this there will be *no* cheap oil sustainment and more expensive methods will need to be employed. In point of fact they may not be able to let any contracts on natural gas based on domestic consumption alone.

Third, the entire petro-infrastructure has seen no new additions on it for at least 4 years and most likely 8 years. Japan has shut off ALL new investments in this area and the amounts that Iran is trying to bring online no where meet current consumption increases. Gross supply,then, at best will remain flat with diminishing older fields losing production, no new projects to be online before 2010 and actual maintenance losing oil in the sytem. And as the older maritime equipment needs an overhaul, bringing it up again only means a faster date to get that started. From that the expectation is that gross supply will *not* remain steady and will actually begin to decline.

Fourth, the first indicator or warning sign is that Iran can't meet contractual obligations. They have not met their OPEC export quota for 18 months.

When production crosses consumption downwards, Iran becomes a net oil IMPORTER. Their refinery system is already so bad off that they are talking about buying gasoline to import and selling it at cost... considering the subsidized gas is 34 cents/gallon and the world market is about 5 times that, the economic shock of even a slow transition will be huge as money starts to flow out of Iran to buy gasoline.

The refineries are the key: they are the most integral part of adding value to the crude oil and get a high return on investment. When those start to fail, that indicates a system-wide problem in lack of skills and maintenance. No modern Nation loses *any* oil in the pipeline system or refining system, unless it is venting of natural gas that cannot be used or captured. It isn't just the nice economic trouble numbers out at 2012-19 that are worrying, it is the fact that before that happens the entire system reaches a tipping point and Iran changes from oil export on contract to being forced out of OPEC and onto the spot market because it cannot meet export quotas and is seen as an unreliable Nation for meeting contractual obligations. Things get very ugly then. Especially if the refineries have to be shut down and gasoline imported. And there is no cheap rejuvenation of older oil fields with natural gas. And maintenance of the basic pipeline and pumping system declines steadily.

The refineries are near that point already. The oil fields are already experiencing the fact that more expensive rejuvenation needs to be used because natural gas cannot be taken from the domestic use side. And the infrastructure is already losing 3-4% of all oil pumped out of the ground.

These are not little post-it note warnings: these are huge billboards in neon brightly flashing *Danger Ahead*.

What happens when this house of cards falls in on itself is of speculation. Even if they stopped subsidies *today* and took the resultant economic downturn, new projects will not come online until 2010 if the system worked well. It does not work well. This is the strangest form of economic suicide that has ever been described: willful neglect of a cash cow that drives the National economy to undermine one's own Nation.

When the refineries die or are closed, the rest of Iran is not far behind.

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General Fallon Moves To CENTCOM


A navy admiral to take charges of CENTCOM. Fallon's CENTCOM area of responsibility will include Iran.

A conflict with Iran would be a naval and air operation. Fallon is a naval flight officer. He flew combat missions in Vietnam, commanded an A-6 Intruder squadron, a carrier air wing, and an aircraft carrier. As a three-star, he commanded Second Fleet and Strike Force Atlantic. He presently heads U.S. Pacific Command. His resume also includes duty in numerous joint and Navy staff billets, including Deputy Director for Operations with Joint Task Force Southwest Asia in Riyahd, Saudi Arabia

New York Post: Why put a swabbie in charge of grunt operations? There's a one-word answer: Iran. Assigning a Navy aviator and combat veteran to oversee our military operations in the Persian Gulf makes perfect sense when seen as a preparatory step for striking Iran's nuclear-weapons facilities - if that becomes necessary. While the Air Force would deliver the heaviest tonnage of ordnance in a campaign to frustrate Tehran's quest for nukes, the toughest strategic missions would fall to our Navy. Iran would seek to retaliate asymmetrically by attacking oil platforms and tankers, closing the Strait of Hormuz - and trying to hit oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates. Only the U.S. Navy - hopefully, with Royal Navy and Aussie vessels underway beside us - could keep the oil flowing to a thirsty world....

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Friday, January 05, 2007

For Nana



Laboo bokhoran khodeshoono garam negah darand: New Energy Policy of mullahs

For Nanaye Nazanin

«بی برنامگی ایران، ترکیه را به آستانه بحران رسانده است»


«بی برنامگی ایران، ترکیه را به آستانه بحران رسانده است»
متوقف شدن صادرات گاز طبيعی ايران به ترکيه اين کشور را در آستانه بحران کمبود انرژی قرار داده است.

از صبح چهارشنبه ديروز صادرات گاز طبيعی ايران به ترکيه پس از يک دوره چهل روزه افت روز افزون فشار، به طور کلی متوقف شده است.

رسانه های ترکيه مقامات ايران را به بی برنامگی و عدم پايبندی به تعهد متهم کرده اند. مقامات انرژی ترکيه سرگرم بررسی تأمين انرژی از کشورهای غير از ايران هستند.

به گزارش آژانس خبرترک، ماه گذشته در جريان سفر رجب طيب اردوغان نخست وزير و عبدلله گل وزير خارجه ترکيه به تهران، مقامات بلندپايه جمهوری اسلامی وعده داده بودند در زمستان امسال صادرات گاز به ترکيه با کاهش و قطعی مواجه نگردد.

وزارت انرژی ترکيه اعلام کرده است که اگر به زودی صادرات گاز ايران از سر گرفته نشود، ترکيه وارد بحران جديدی خواهد شد.

ايران برودت هوا و افزايش مصرف داخلی را دليل توقف صادرات گاز به ترکيه دانسته و از شهروندان خواسته است که با «صرفه جويی در مصرف گاز» به بحران ناشی از توقف صادرات گاز ميان تهران و آنکارا پايان دهند.

وزارت انرژی ترکيه به شرکت های خصوصی وارد کننده گاز طبيعی اعلام کرده است که بر خلاف دستورالعمل قبلی اينک ميتوانند گاز وارد کنند.

همزمان مقامات ترکيه گفت و گوهايی را با روسيه، نيجريه، الجزاير و مالزی آغاز کرده و انتظار می رود قراردادهای افزايش خريد گاز از اين کشورها به امضا برسد.

در اين رابطه وزارت انرژی ترکيه با شرکت گازپروم روسيه به توافق رسيده است تا پنج درصد ميزان صادرات گاز خود به اين کشور را افزايش دهد.

ترکيه بيش از هفتاد درصد از انرژی خود را از خارج تامين می کند.

روسيه با صادرات سالانه ۱۹ مليارد متر مکعب گاز به ترکيه نخستين تامین کننده انرژی اين کشور محسوب می شود. ايران با صادرات ۶ میليارد و هفتصد مليون متر مکعب گاز، دومين و نيجريه و الجزاير با فروش ۵ مليارد و هشتصد مليون متر مکعب گاز به اين کشور، سومين تامین کننده انرژی ترکيه محسوب می شوند.

ايران طبق قرارداد ترکيه باید روزانه ۲۷ مليون متر مکعب گاز به اين کشور صادر کند.


http://web.peykeiran.com/new/iran/iran_news_body.aspx?ID=36143

h/t:Azarmehr

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Thursday, January 04, 2007

I'm the worst Aunt of the Year!


My only nepehew is going to be a year old in March and
I still haven' seen him.

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'Clean sweep': Bush replaces top general in Middle East who opposed troop surge and Military Campaign Against the US in Iraq by IRGC

Michael Ledeen, Pajamas Media: Conclusive proof of Iran's huge military campaign against the US and allied forces in Iraq, employing the help of both Sunni and Shi'ite groups. Apparently, this new information - which was acquired during the storming of a stronghold in Baghdad - has made it to the desk of Bush, and it seems that this issue will have to be confronted in one way or another now. I've posted some excerpts but it's worth reading the whole thing.

There is no escape from the war Iran is waging against us, the war that started in 1979 and is intensifying with every passing hour. We will shortly learn more about the documents we found accompanying the high-level Iranian terrorist leader we briefly arrested in Hakim’s compound in Baghdad some days ago, and what we will learn–what many key American officials have already learned–is stunning. At least to those who thought that Iran was “meddling” in Iraq, but refused to believe that it was total war, on a vast scale.
Several good journalists are working on this story (see, for example,
today’s article by Eli Like in the NY Sun), and the outlines are pretty clear. First, we had good information that terrorists were in Baghdad, and had gone to the compound. We did not know exactly who they were. We entered the compound and arrested everybody who looked like a usual suspect.

One of them told us he was the #3 official of the al Quds unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, a particularly vicious group. He was carrying documents, one of which was in essence a wiring diagram of Iranian operations in Iraq. That wiring diagram included both Shi’ite and Sunni terrorist groups, and was of such magnitude that American officials were flabbergasted. It seems that our misnamed Intelligence Community had grossly underestimated the sophistication and the enormity of the Iranian war campaign.
I am told that this information has reached the president, and that it is part of the body of information he is digesting in order to formulate his strategy for Iraq. If he sees clearly what is going on, he must realize that there can be no winning strategy for Iraq alone, since a lot of ‘Iraqi’ activity—not just lethal materiel such as the latest generation of explosive devices, now powerful enough to penetrate the armor of most of our vehicles—is actually Iranian in origin. We cannot ‘solve’ the Iraqi problem without regime change in Iran.


Those of you who have borne with me for the last few years will not be surprised to hear this; what’s new is the apparently irrefutable evidence that has now providentially fallen into our hands. The policy makers will not like this evidence, because it drives them in a direction they do not wish to go. I am told that, at first, there was a concerted effort, primarily but by no means exclusively from the intel crowd, to sit on the evidence, to prevent it from reaching the highest levels. But the information was too explosive, and it is now circulating throughout the bureaucracy.


Update: Both General Abizaid and General Casey have been replaced.
Admiral William J. Fallon will replace Gen. John Abizaid, US commander in the Middle East, who announced his retirement in December and was expected to leave the post in March. Abizaid was a critic of Bush's efforts to add more troops to Iraq, but the circumstances of his early departure are unclear.
"The president wants a clean sweep," an official told ABC News. According to a Kansas City Star article published December 24, "Commanders have been skeptical of the value of increasing troops. The decision represents a reversal for Casey, the highest-ranking officer in Iraq. Casey and Gen. John P. Abizaid, the top commander in the Middle East, have long resisted adding troops in Iraq. The LA Times recently reported that Abizaid's departure could clear the way for a more aggressive strategy in Iraq.

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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, is dead.



Michael Ledeen, Faster Please reported that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, is dead.
UPDATE: Some sources, evidently including a family member, are reporting that Khamenei, in grave condition, was alive as recently as yesterday. Our source reported that he died today. More to come. It is the middle of the night in Iran.
MORE: Farideh Vafai - spokeswoman for Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah of Iran - made the following comment to PJM Washington Editor Richard Miniter: “We cannot confirm this news. We have heard rumors but so far have no confirmation.” Ms. Vafai was reached at Pahlavi’s Secretariat in Falls Church, VA.

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Michael Rubin


Michael Rubin briefly describes how government/mullah-organized 'protests' mask the underlying lack of support the Islamic Republic leadership has from the people of Iran, how the US should exploit what he calls this 'weakness. You can read the full article here, and I've outlined a few quotes below.

In Iran, demonstrations are an art form. First, the government buses in state workers. Next, officials distribute banners with revolutionary slogans. Finally, state television reports a spontaneous rally in support of the Islamic Republic. Stage-managed demonstrations, though, mask weakness.....
...The Islamic Republic is under tremendous pressure. A recent Johns Hopkins University report predicts Iran's oil industry could collapse within a decade because of poor management and disintegrating infrastructure. Already, the Islamic Republic must import 40% of its fuel needs. The Iranian economy is unable to provide jobs for 700,000 young people entering the market annually. The World Bank estimates that Iran's GDP is 30% below its 1970s levels. Experts estimate 5 million Iranians are addicted to drugs. Prostitution has skyrocketed as poverty spreads.
The White House should exploit the growing cracks in Iranian society....
...It is wrongheaded to criticize Bush's Axis of Evil rhetoric. Not only does straight talk dampen European willingness to invest in Iranian industry, but the willingness of Iranian democrats to speak out has grown in proportion to all the White House talk about freedom. Peace activists should applaud such effective, nonmilitary action.
Finally, U.S. public diplomacy should prioritize information over pop music [read: Radio Farda]....
...Military action against Iran would be a tragedy, but need only occur if U.S. policy remains a muddle. Here the White House and new Congress are fortunate. If they play their cards well, this year could be Ahmadinejad's last.

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Amir Kabir University students' letter to the Iranian Nation




The following letter by (Tehran's) Amir Kabir Unversity students to the nation has been drafted for circulation - please give it the exposure it deserves.

Down with the dictatorship of the Islamic theologians!!!


*******************************


A letter from the Amir Kabir University student protestors to the people of Iran

Enlightened People of Iran,

The cries that you heard several weeks ago from the Amir Kabir Polytechnic university was neither the voice of the members of various political parties, nor the voices of those who would have supposedly been deceived by the United States of America and Zionists. They were the cries of your children; students seeking freedom and equality at the Polytechnic; raised-up cries for many years of tolerating oppression, cruelty, horror and suffocation at the hands of those autocrats ruling over this land.

Our cries are the echoes of poverty, corruption and discrimination which has run deep roots in our society and has driven the most pure individuals of our land to prostitution, leaving no other choice for the most responsible ones other than to flee the country all together.

Poverty, corruption and discrimination which has been forced upon the honest workers, employees, teachers, women and men of the land has become the basis of all enmity and unrest in our daily lives. How is it possible that in a country where the pages of newspapers that daily become darker and darker with despair, suicide and drug addiction, one can live a calm and uncomplicated life?

Our cries are not the voices of justice-seekers and hate mongering students…students who these days are even deprived of the right to an education. They are sent to prison and die as a result of hunger strike in prison and are shamelessly attacked, ridiculed and insulted by Ahmadinejad and his supporters.

We protest the suppression of the wokers’ protests; workers who have not received their wages for months on end and due to unjust policies of the totalitarian rule, they are fired from their jobs.

We protest the discriminatory laws against women and brutal suppression of peaceful protests for them to obtain the minimum human rights. We stand against the captivity of the critics [of the regime], political protesters and the banning of publications in our country.

Political suppression which in the absence of opposition, facilitates the autocrats - who absolutely distort and obfuscate – dare to pass off their vainglory under the guise of the absolute rights of the Iranian people.

At Amir Kabir University Ahmadinejad speaks of an increase of non-oil exports. Our question is how does one justify an increase in non-oil exports when Iran’s economy is 70% dependent on Iran’s oil?

Mr. Ahmadinejad speaks of the decrease in imports; can one call the growth index of $40 billion a reduction in imports?

We have the right to ask the president and even holler at him to explain what exactly happened to all those promises and slogans? Where is that oil money that was promised to the citizens? Who are those who make up the power and wealth mafia? Will they ever be actually identified? Why is it that the news of all the trips Ahmadinejad takes to various provinces get wide coverage by Islamic regime’s radio and television but the closure of factories and fired workers, teachers and intellectuals who have the responsibility of educating the future generations completely blocked out. Is this not demagoguery?

We have the right to holler at Ahmadinejad to answer why the ministry of science is granted the right to assign stars to students*, prohibiting them from entering onto university campuses. Do the heavy verdicts imposed by the disciplinary committees on the student activists, not mean enmity and hatred? How can university officials and authorities of the ministry of science allow university students such as Ali Azizi, Abbass Hakimzadeh and Majid Tavakoli be prohibited from entering into the university?

They have left no psychological tranquility for the students. In a totally illegal move, the scholastic file of students is closed. They send threat messages to our families. In a totally vicious move they destroy the student assembly building, the members’ property and personal information is confiscated. They turn the university into a war zone and put students under constant intelligence/military surveillance. Are we then the ones who cause tension in the university environment?

They even fear the enclosed university environment where information flows freely. With all the arrest and restrictions on publishing students’ periodicals, how can Ahmadinejad claim that he accepts the voice of opposition?

How did Ahmadinejad dare to accuse university students of being lackeys of the U.S. or Zionists? What documentation can he produce as a proof of such an accusation?

We students will not tolerate such talk; for this reason we demand the full and uncensored broadcast of the film footage of Ahmadinejad’s speech at our university via the so-called national media so that the world can judge for itself who the real enemies of the people are and who the foreign agents are.

Indeed, we have decided to take our futures into our own hands.

* Stars are being given to students for punishment. "Students with stars" describes students who have been expelled or suspended from a university. The term became prevalent after several students said university officials had refused to register them for the new academic year, telling them that they have two or three stars. Student protestors and activists say more than 250 students have been affected thus far. The “admission committee” in charge of picking out the students who get the stars is made up agents of the ministry of intelligence and security of the Islamic regime.


I would also add the new new analysis published by the National Academy of Sciences that says Iran's oil industry is in decline because of poor management, distrust of foreign investment and a failure to develop new reserves. If the trend continues, Iran's oil exports, already declining by as much as 12 percent a year, could dry up by 2015. "If we look at that shortfall, and failure to rectify leaks in their refineries, that adds up to a loss of about $10 billion to $11 billion a year," said Roger Stern, economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, to The Associated Press. "That is a picture of an industry in collapse." "What they are doing to themselves is much worse than anything we could do," Stern added. "

to aryamehr

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Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Response to Shameless Appeasers

I’m utterly infuriated by Iranian-Americans or Iranian-Swedes who shamelessly promote the Islamic Republic’s agenda in our own backyard and get away with it. The latest dispatchee of IRI puts Joseph Gobbles to shame by invoking nationalism and glories of the Iranians past while in reality the likes of her hate everything Iranian and non-muslim. The Joseph Goebbels incarnate is a woman this time and a PhD candidate in Utah, which potentially makes her even more lethal.


All nations have a right to nuclear programs or I would even go as far as to say nuclear weapons. But Iran is not a Nation and doesn’t view itself in those terms. True muslims and believers do not subscribe to such notions as 'nations'. Utopian Islamic Ummah is the Allah's will and every muslim is duty bound to fulfill the will of Allah . The Islamic Republic of Iran occuping the nation of Iran has caused and will cause enough havoc and mayhem around the world through its foreign legions and proxy terrorists without nuclear weapons and it should be stopped with or without it.

Iran is not a Nation but A "Cause:" Islamic Revival and Neo Islam:

The Islamic republic doesn’t view itself as a 'nation' because in Islam the concept of nation is non-existence and the allegiances are to the Islamic Ummah and not the Iranian Nation..

We tolerate India's and Israel's arsenals largely because we have some faith that their governments will not use them. Were Iran ruled by a reasonable government who had not self-appointed itself to be a "cause" rather than a nation and live peacefully among others; to be a vanguard of opposing the “Arrogant Power” and bringing the US empire down, “A world without America”, and establish it’s Islamic Ummah per "Khomeini's Manifest destiny", we would not care about Islamic Republic's weaponary. Mahan Abedin of Asia Times puts it eloquently:




On balance, the Iranian revolution was more about introducing new ideas into the religio-political lexicon of Muslims than it was about asserting Iranian independence and sovereignty.

From the very beginning the revolution's leaders made clear that theirs was an "Islamic" revolution and as such it constituted the greatest Islamic revivalist project of the modern era. Iranian revolutionaries saw the charismatic leadership of ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as the culmination of the legacies of Islamic revivalists beginning with Seyed Jamaledin Afghani (Asadabadi), Mohammad Abduh, and Mohammad Rashid Rida and continuing with Hassan al-Banna and Sayed Qutb.

There are at least three core reasons Iran's Islamic Revolution constituted the most strategic breakthrough for the modern Islamic movement that emerged in the late 19th century. First and foremost, it marked the first time that modern "Islamists" were propelled into power. Second, Iranian revolutionaries embarked on an ambitious long-term plan to Islamize Iranian society. Third, the new regime (despite its Shi'ite appearance) was wholeheartedly wedded to exporting the "Islamic revolution" to sympathetic audiences the world over.

While the Saudis (with much encouragement from the Americans) tried hard to limit the significance of the revolution to Shi'ites in the first instance - and subsequently tried to reduce it further to Iranian Shi'ites only - the Islamic Republic, from the very outset, projected itself as a non-sectarian entity wholeheartedly devoted to the politics of pan-Islam. To consolidate and export the revolution, Iranian leaders developed an entire infrastructure of new Islamic rhetoric based on timeless Islamic terms and concepts. Such terms as mustazafin (dispossessed), estekbar (arrogance) and taghout (satanic rule) gained wide currency throughout the Arab world.

Today, these terms are widely used by the so-called Jihadi Salafis who - on the surface at least - profess profound contempt for the Islamic Republic. More broadly, these terms constitute the basic language of Islamists everywhere, irrespective of their position toward the Islamic Republic. While the Iranian revolution has failed to develop a significant political constituency in the Muslim world (with the obvious exception of Lebanon), its language and imagery have been adopted everywhere. On this account Iranian leaders can claim a measure of success.

Targeting the 'Great Satan' From the outset, Iranian revolutionary leaders focused some of their strongest rhetorical invective against the United States. This found its strongest expression in Khomeini's reference to the US as the "Great Satan". The message of the Iranian revolution was simple: the United States - on account of its heritage, values, power and ambitions - posed the greatest threat to the security and prosperity of the global Muslim community. In the 1980s this conception of the United States as a "Great Satan" and the pinnacle of "global arrogance" was limited to militant Shi'ites only. The Sunnis did not initially respond to this message for three reasons. First and foremost, the conditions for anti-American Islamic militancy had not yet developed in Sunni Islamist circles. Second, Saudi propaganda was effective in countering the message of the Iranian revolution. And last but not least, the Afghan jihad not only consumed much of the energies of Sunni Islamists but it also neutralized much of their anti-American feelings on account of the fact that their "jihad" was partly bankrolled by the United States.

While Hamas is firmly rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood, it is nonetheless a complex organization. At its extreme right-wing fringe there are elements close to the so-called Jihadi Salafis. At the other end of the spectrum lie elements that are indistinguishable from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), which to date is the only Arab Sunni Islamist organization that professes strong loyalty to Iran's Islamic Revolution. But Hamas as a whole is close to the Islamic Republic. It is unfortunate that while Western commentators usually exaggerate Iran's influence over Lebanon's Hezbollah, they tend to play down the Islamic Republic's significant leverage over Hamas. Both the PIJ and Hamas were instrumental in spreading the idiom and long-term strategic vision of Iran's Islamic Revolution to Arab Sunni Islamist movements. This includes al-Qaeda and the broader Jihadi Salafi movement. While on the surface the Jihadi Salafis are dismissive of Hamas (on account of its participation in elections and the increasingly "nationalist" nature of its resistance to Israel), they have been influenced by its methodology and success.

More broadly, while the Jihadi Salafis express deep contempt and hatred toward Iran's Islamic Revolution, they are parasitic on its rhetoric, heritage and long-term geopolitical vision. Ironically, as the Sunni Islamists adopted its language and vision (if not the model itself), the Islamic Republic moved away from ideological anti-Americanism in the 1990s. This not only reflected the cooling down of revolutionary fervor but was also indicative of Iran's growing geopolitical weight. The conclusive defeat of Saddam Hussein's armies in the Gulf War of 1991 was a turning point for post-revolutionary Iran and once again positioned the country as the foremost power in the region. While Ahmadinejad and his supporters are deeply loyal to Ayatollah Ali al-Khamenei (the Islamic Republic's supreme leader), they look beyond his reign and are planning accordingly. They want to prevent a leadership deficit in the event of Khamenei's death. This may require seriously altering the institution of velayat-e-faqih (rule of the jurisconsult), the cornerstone of Iran's unique system of Islamic government. While Ahmadinejad and his supporters have suffered a setback in the recent elections for the Assembly of Experts (a body tasked with electing and - in the event of poor performance - dismissing the supreme leader), this is unlikely to affect their long-term planning on this issue. On the external front, Ahmadinejad and his neo-Islamist allies want to align Iran with the growing Islamic movement in the region and beyond. From their perspective, Iran has an abiding stake in the future of peaceful Islamic movements as opposed to the perpetuation of autocratic Arab regimes… Instead, Iranian leaders see Islamic movements that are modeled, or at the very least influenced, by the Islamic Revolution as the key to the "modern, strong and peaceful" region that Kissinger talks about. Ahmadinejad wants to align the Islamic Republic ever closer to the Islamic opposition in the Middle East and beyond, even if that sparks confrontation with Arab regimes. This will inevitably deepen the divide with the US.


And let’s not forget, Iranian nuclear program started more than 18 years ago and was kept a secret from the world and IAEA until an Iranian opposition group disclosed the location of the its nuclear plants. Why the secrecy if it was for peaceful purposes in a first place? So, those who claim that Iranians attempt to acquire nuclear weapons is in direct response to US policy in Iraq or Afghanistan had better find another ruse to spread around. The Iranian’s feverish attempt to become a nuclear power has everything to do with the foreign policy of Iran which was set by Khomeini more than 27 years ago, which was to expand and export the militant version of Islam (i.e., Khomeinisim) and establish the utopian Islamic society ((Nab-e-Mohammadi) not only in Iran but around the world under Shia tutelage...And onward to Jerusalem via Karbala and bring it under its rightful owners. Amir Taheri tell us that the "truth, however, is that terrorism is not always necessarily connected with any particular grievance. At its deadliest, it could be the expression of an ideal, if not an actual ideology.
The Red Brigades in Italy and the Red Army Faction in Germany in the 1970s had no particular grievances that they could not have expressed through peaceful means in their democratic societies. They did not want anything in particular the granting of which would persuade them to end their killings. They wanted everything. Their successors, the Islamist terrorists of the new century go even further because they want everything and more. The Red Brigades and the Red Army Faction would have been content with seizing political control and imposing a dictatorship of the proletariat, whatever that meant. The Islamists, however, look beyond mere political power. They want to control every aspect of the lives of every individual, including what one eats, wears and does in the privacy of one's home. To treat this new terrorism as a purely political phenomenon is intellectually dishonest and potentially suicidal for the afflicted societies."


A liberal and democratic Iran would be less paranoid about its security and therefore less reliant on nuclear weapons to defend itself. Incidentally, whom are we kidding? Iran with a GDP of less than $2900 and Per capita income of $8700 even with a nuclear weapon (a 70-year old technology) and declining oil exports and its eventual economic suicide will not pose any major threats to the US and have to bury its vain dream of being a superpower in the region because it doesn’t have the economic wherewithal to sustain it’s hegemonic expansion. The only reason these murderous occupiers want to become a nuclear power is because they want to rape and pillage Iran and Iranians indefinitely without being harassed by their masters, the EU. It would give them leverage in trade negotiations with the EU because the EU can no longer use their violation of human rights as a bargaining chip.

In defiance of United Nations (UN) resolutions, the Iranian regime is developing
a nuclear weapon capability, and has engaged in a campaign of systematic deception vis-à-vis the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about the scope and pace of its nuclear effort. Iran is also actively expanding its ballistic missile arsenal, and will soon be capable of holding at risk targets far beyond the Middle East. At the same time, Iran has become a serial proliferator, demonstrating both the capacity and the intent to transfer WMD technology and know-how, including those related to nuclear weapons, to rogue states and terrorist organizations alike. The Iranian regime remains the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, fueling the activities of proxies and its foreign legions such as Hezbollah, Hamas and Shia death squads funded and trained by Iran , buying influence in Afghanistan and funding Somali Islamists, etc. Fundamentalist movements, which were mostly isolated and weak in the past, became the clerical regime's arms for the export of terrorism and fundamentalism after 1979, and as such, the menacing phenomenon of terrorism became global. Attempts to separate terrorism from fundamentalism are dangerous or futile at best.

During the 1980s and 1990s, at least 90 percent of the major terrorist attacks were linked either to Tehran, the heartland of militant Islam, as the epicenter of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism or to its surrogates and agents and movements that managed to thrive only under the direct backing of Tehran's mullahs. All roads of international terrorism meet and the traffic circle of Tehran. The Nation of Iran exports terrorism. Some of the terrorist attacks carried out either by Tehran or fundamentalists under its hegemony and influence are:

1. The occupation of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the taking of American hostages in 1979. This was, in fact, a clear declaration of war by this new phenomenon that effectively demonstrated its anti-west potential and hysteria.
2. Taking Westerners, especially Americans, hostage in Lebanon in the 1980s.
3. The explosion of the U.S. Marine barracks in Lebanon in 1983.
4. The bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in 1988. The explosion of an Air France 747 passenger jet in Tehran's airport in 1983
5. Several bombings in the streets of Paris in 1986, which caused many deaths and injuries among civilians
6. The hanging of U.S. Colonel William Higgins, who worked for the United Nations, in Lebanon.
7. The shipment of 51 packages of explosives to Saudi Arabia (which were discovered before detonation) in 1986 in order to kill many pilgrims.
8. The massacre of more than 400 pilgrims to Mecca in 19878. The bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires.
9. The killing of antifundamentalist intellectuals and authors in Turkey. . The assassination of dissidents abroad.
10. Killing of 19 Americans in Khobar towers.

There's a comedy that SNL writers would envy about the invocation of law by Javad Zarif, the Iranian embassador to the United Nations, in connection with a regime that took a diplomatic mission hostage and has defied international laws since its inception across the globe.

The Iranian regime has been a moral cesspool and international rogue state for over twenty seven years. Anyone's free to say, of course, that that would be "illegal", but in the absence of a justice system that means about as much as saying it's pink.

"Through more than years of bogus diplomacy with the EU , the Islamic Republic has
expanded its influence in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Latin America as well, and is actively attempting to forge anti-American coalitions in those regions. So far, however, the United States has not formulated a comprehensive strategy to address this complex challenge. Rather, Washington has wedded itself to a dangerous—and deeply flawed—diplomatic process aimed at addressing just one aspect of the contemporary Iranian threat: its nuclear program. In doing so,the U.S. has placed its reliance on the United Nations system, as well as its allies in Europe, none of whom have shown much appetite for confronting Iran over the nuclear issue. Yet both Russia and China, which have extensive economic, political and military ties to Iran, remain an impediment to meaningful diplomatic and economic efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and can be expected to continue obstructing forceful action against their client state. "

And let's get another thing straight: it would be nice if the Iranian people finally took it into their heads to rid themselves of their "hardliners" (aka genocidal fanatics), but our concern is to see to it that that regime doesn't continue to fan the conflict in Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria and above all doesn't get its hands on the means to carry out its genocidal fantasies against its own people and others in the world. In that context, rest assured it will be the US, not the Iranians that decide whether or not US soldiers set foot in Iran. The Iranians can do what they like -- rally to a fanatical, brutal, vicious, and tyrannical regime, or finally turn against it.

I hate to break it to CASMII et al and other appeasers of all stripes that Pentagon and State Department are not waiting for their pearls of wisdom to determine what’s in the strategic and national interests of the United States. Given the recent toothless sanctions, it looks like Iran doesn’t pose enough of a risk to the US at least not in the near future.

The only losers are the Iranians who will not see freedom for the next hundred years if Iran gets the bomb (read A Jacksonian Comments to Gracchi).
Look at China even with its free market economy, it’s no where near anything called democracy and respecting human rights.

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The Silk Road

to: Alan Peters

CHINA - USA - BEHIND THE SCENES STRUGGLE

"Does the Mass Media have a total disconnect, or is being fearfully discreet for once, or simply not connecting the dots?

Quite recently, sources told a radio show host that China had threatened to ruin the USA economy by selling off a Trillion dollars they hold in their reserves. (Posted on this site at the link shown immediately below and also on World Tribune for subscribers).

http://noiri.blogspot.com/2006/12/china-to-dump-one-trillion-dollars-in.html

Other reports have more recently stated, after UN sanctions were approved against Iran, the USA is taking a hard look at putting sanctions on a huge Chinese oil and gas company, Sineco, which has signed a $16 Billion contract with Iran for development of Iran's natural gas fields.

This contract is part of an overall $300 billion agreement entered into by Sineco with Iran, which virtually puts control of exploration, development, improvement, upkeep, refining etc., completely into Chinese hands.

Plus the critical expansion of refining gasoline capabilities to cover the Islamic Regime's current import of about 45% of Iran's automobile fuel needs.

I believe the USA sent such a top level financial and economic team to China to discuss the effect the embargo on assisting Iran's oil and gas industry would have on Sineco operations and contracts and were promptly slapped with the Chinese threat to ruin America (and subsequently the world and China's own ) economy by crashing the value of the dollar.

Somewhat like Russia, China could "withdraw from the world economy " and survive. Not as the rising power it is now but at the low level of living standards most of the population endures.

The USA, on the other hand, with high living and quality of life standards to which Americans have grown accustomed, could not weather the global storm the dollar crash would bring.

It is not unconceivable that China would flood Iran with Chinese military forces to "protect its national interests" - using the excuse of "maintaining stability in the region". The quality and equipment of those forces - compard to sheer numbers - is almost irrelevant.

The argument that China does not have the capability to move large numbers of troops is almost laughable as they can reach Iran from various, not always unfriendly, directions. Which transit route would want to go head to head to oppose China?

Iran's Mullahs would probably side with China and welcome the "take over" to spite America. Informing their own populace that this would be in their best interests. And as usual, violently suppress dissent. This time, not with Arab mercenaries of the Bassiji suppression divisions, but with eager Chinese assistance."


Remember the Silk Road?



Let me introduce you to a new book by John Garver: China And Iran: Ancient Partners in a Post-imperial World . China stands as Iran's staunchest ally on the UN Security Council, as well as its primary source of advanced technology and military assistance, built on centuries of close economic relations. Successive governments of these two ancient and proud nations have reaffirmed their common interests in seeking an Asia free of Soviet expansionism and U.S. unilateral domination. John W. Garver charts the evolution of Sino-Iranian relations through several phases, including Iran under the shah, the 1979 revolution, and the Iran-Iraq war. China and Iran also explores the contentious debates over Iran's nuclear programs and China's role in assisting these programs and supporting Iran's efforts to modernize its military and oil industry infrastructure.

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Imminent Stoning!



Eleven people, nine women and two men as listed below have been condemned to be stoned to death. According to Article 6 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, signed and ratified by Iran in 1975, in countries which have not abolished the death penalty, sentence of death may be imposed only for the most serious crimes. Article 7 of the same covenant states that No one shall be subjected to torture or to cruel, inhumane or degrading treatment or punishment. Despite ratifying the above covenant, the Islamic penal code gives the judges the right to sentence the accused to death by stoning even when the crime of adultery has not been proved according to the same penal code's standards and requirements.

Please sign the Petition



h/t: Sheema Kalbasi

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Tuesday, January 02, 2007

"Extinction" of Iranian oil exports in 2014-15

"Mr. Stern contends that the Iranian oil industry is actually in something of a death spiral. Iran has been missing its OPEC quota of late, and while high oil prices have masked the decline by keeping revenue up, production has been declining. Higher domestic energy demand in Iran combined with difficulty in attracting foreign investment and other economic problems, he argues, make a rapid decline in oil exports likely -- ending in the "extinction" of Iranian oil exports in 2014-15. If anything such as this is true, a huge component of the Iranian puzzle is being systematically overlooked.

Mr. Stern, writing recently in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, believes that the Iranian infatuation with nuclear energy may have its roots in this crisis, as well as in its desire for nuclear weapons. Increasing domestic use of nuclear energy would free up oil and gas, currently being used to satisfy Iran's electricity needs, for export, he argues. The major implication of his analysis, however, may be that Iran's regional power is being overestimated, that even without American or international intervention, Iran faces a reckoning soon as its major source of international money collapses.
We don't know whether Mr. Stern is right. The paper assumes that the country's leadership will be unable to meet the challenge of modernizing and expanding production facilities and that Chinese investment won't be available to ensure that exports continue at the rate China's own increasingly voracious appetite for oil requires. What's more, even if Iran faces major problems, it's not clear that would make it less dangerous or more pliant to international will. It could do the opposite.
But Mr. Stern's paper represents a refreshing examination of the suppositions that lie beneath current discussions of the Islamic republic. One of the intellectual failures in the run-up to the Iraq war was the absence of such examinations both within the intelligence community and in the political culture at large. Mr. Stern's challenge is valuable and worthy of serious response."

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Monday, January 01, 2007

New Year's Prayer in Vanak Church, Iran-Isfahan




Hat tip to Orthobrother. May the New Year bring you more broken legs and hips...the kinds you like...LOL

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More Fascinating Analysis by A Jacksonian

...What is even more worrying is the eventual collapse of the Iranian oil sector within the next few years, with an upper limit at 13 years and the lower limit of the next real problem they have at any refinery. They have so angered the rest of the world and have been so dedicated to putting a funding stream in for terrorism and in bribing their own people with cheap hydrocarbons, that they have not only not invested in their petro-infrastructure for at least 4 years and more possibly 8 years, but they have not actively *educated* those in charge of the system on how to run it.

No modern Nation willingly loses *any* oil between pump-head and the end of the refinery. A very miniscule loss is expected, but in the fractions of a percent and as close to zero as can be done. Iran is currently losing 3-4% of its oil between wells and the end of the refinery cycle: not diverted, not put into storage, not in excess products someplace. It is lost due to waste, mismanagement and ageing infrastructure. In trying to get the old 1980's maritime pumps going again, they have actively diverted money away from current infrastructure maintenance and provisional expansion to meet up with increased domestic demand. The long and short of it is that the refineries are not well run and that is the huge cash cow of the system: the refined products get you a higher return on investment. When Iran starts to publicly talk about shutting down its refineries to *buy* gasoline on the open market and *not* subsidize that, they have a huge problem. Loss of oilfield productivity, waste of oil in the pipeline to refinery systems and subsidized internal demand are driving the output graph to a plateau which will be declining as the marginal increased capacity they have *not* been putting on is *not* meeting the internal demand curve for petroleum. Even if the Iranian regime *today* ended internal subsidies and did a huge, multi-billion dollar re-investment in the infrastructure AND started projects off to actually expand production, all of that would not have any beneficial effects for 2-4 years and might actually collapse their economy.

When you hear Iran boast that it will cut off its oil supply one now must realize that this is going to happen sooner or later when that supply curve headed flat or down passes the demand curve headed upwards. Best guess is 7 - 13 years on that if nothing is done *and* they actually just maintained what they have. As they aren't doing that latter, the number of years until that is moved downwards.

Indicative of this is the fact that for 18 months Iran has *not* met its oil export quota. Before those supply/demand lines cross, Iran will have trouble fulfilling contracts and continuing to *be* a member of OPEC. At some point they will be forced out of the regular OPEC consortium or so relegated to miniscule output that they will not be seen as a trustworthy supplier of oil. When it comes to buying finished petroleum products, that same differential that internal production would *gain* is now a delta of *loss*: money flows out of the Nation to purchase gasoline. And as the subsidized amount is 34 cents/gal. and the world market is about 5 times that, the net economic effect is large.

So, beyond the human rights abuses, arming external Foreign Legions, using repressive Revolutionary/Special Guards and the Basij and hired mercenaries to suppress their own people, Iran is also creating a 'poison pill' which is already dissolving. The threat of 'taking them over and you lose oil exports' isn't a threat buy a short- to mid-term expectation even if they sat at home and started knitting.

So, even if the Iranian regime were overthrown today, this minute, and an instantly democratic government elected the next moment, the entire Nation is 'touch and go' on economic viability and might *still* collapse no matter how much money is thrown into it as the lead-time on maintaining infrastructure is something measured in years not months. Iraq, which had a decrepit and so-so maintained infrastructure, has taken three long years to turn around to get to maximum capability of the equipment, which is Soviet junk to start with. Iraq will need years if not a decade to be a regular, reliable oil producer even if all the insurgents went up in a puff of smoke and with a wave of a magic wand *today*. If you think what Iraq needed to get things running is high in monetary value, put that up by a factor of 3 or 4 for Iran. Possibly more as we cannot know the true state of disrepair of their oil system as *no* foreign investment or training has gone to it for nearly 8 years. Thank you to Japan for doing the *right thing* and holding the regime accountable to the NPT. That *had* to be done. The consequences are huge on a global scale if that wasn't done and only less large because it *was* done. You want intestinal fortitude? It is Japan basically saying: We are willing to lose you as OUR main oil supplier if you do not keep to the NPT. Takes a lot of guts to be willing to throw your Nation into an economic quagmire for the sake of high ideals of not wanting a Nuclear Terrorist State.

With that looming, however, Syria has had its own fun and games with increasing 'yellowcake' production via its phosphorus industry and gulling the Swedes to give them expertise in refining phosphorus, which was then turned around to make enriched uranium 'yellowcake'. Syria, by being Iran's European 'middleman' has been able to get Iran nuclear/chem/bio technology, as Syria has also sought that. In return Syria gets a say in Hezbollah and trying to take over Lebanon between them. From recent UK reports, ex-Saddam era nuclear scientists have shown up in Syria along with Iranian nuclear Scientists and ones from the ex-Russian Republics. Add that with its yellowcake enrichment capability and small, but capable chemical industry and Syria now has the 'full monty' of WMD within its grasp, including long range SCUD-D technology and AQ Khan nuclear designs that it got from Iran. Possibly some of the Mitutoyo separators that Iran was helping to ship around, too. So, while we worry and fret over Iran, Syria has put together a nuclear 'finishing group' and has the equipment and expertise to start creating uranium based nuclear devices supplied by its huge phosphorus processing industry. If Iran went down the tubes *today*, Syria, being so weak economically already, would actually ride that out rather well as it does not depend upon exports. In point of fact with their VX and Sarin capacity, speculated bio-weapon capability and now adding a nuclear capability, they are in a perfect position to threaten most of the Eastern Med. for extortion. The very real threats of being able to strike and render inoperable a list of targets is huge: Suez, Bosporous straights, Saudi Oil fields to name *just* the economic targets. Civilian targets within that radius are also available for reprisals. The VX and Sarin capability are already there and Syria makes a point of having multiple, deep underground production and storage facilities.

Additionally Syria funds and protects Kurdish radicals in Turkey and supports the Ba'athist and al Qaeda insurgents in Anbar in Iraq. So Syria is a huge problem even if Iran turned into that self-same democratic government tomorrow.

Care to tell me where to start on that list?

My choice is Syria as it disrupts Iranian influence in the Middle East and removes the current Chem/Bio threat from Syria and gives a chance to close the underground facilities so as to dig them out and inspect them later. You do not put in multiple large bunker complexes with oil feeds into some and large launching pads nearby on others to play tiddly-winks. Do that and Iran is forced to either fund Hezbollah via more expensive routes or to increase problems in Iraq: they will have problems doing *both*.

Bringing Iran down is *not* the problem. Ensuring that the bottom doesn't slide out of the world oil market *is* and we are faced with that in a few years in any event. You can put paid to them now or later, but they will need to be addressed.

I am more than willing to support the United States in helping the Middle East to redress the social, ethnic, and economic problems *created* by the post-WWI treaties that made these problems in the first place and help to get the region on a more stable footing that is realigned towards respecting ethnic, religious and tribal differences and not exploiting them.

That is a 30 year project at least.

We can remove the basis for much in the way of state funded terrorism and Islamic based terrorism by helping the Peoples of the Middle East come to a better set of understandings amongst themselves. There will be some redrawing of the various maps to do this, but the current configuration is not stable as we have seen.

If we don't then al Qaeda and Iran will implement their concepts of destabilize/exploit/destroy/fund insurgents/destabilize and take over weak areas to continue that cycle. And build an Empire on ashes and destruction, but that is fine with them so long as it has outward motion via exploitation of remaining interior population and resources. That is a recipe for global destabilization and disaster.

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