Back-Channel Diplomacy?

Former US Secretary of State James Baker, who co-chaired the recent US Iraq Study Group — the main recommendations of which were rejected by the George W. Bush Administration — is working indirectly and behind the scenes to bring about direct diplomatic ties between the US and Iran.

Reuter: John Negroponte, the U.S. intelligence chief who was Bush's first ambassador to post-war Iraq, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that an emboldened Iran presented new difficulties for U.S. interests in Iraq, the Gulf region, Lebanon and in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. "I would characterize our policy as desirous of resolving any issues we have with Iran by peaceful means. But at the same time, we don't believe that their behavior, such as supporting Shia extremists in Iraq, should go unchallenged," Negroponte said at his Senate confirmation hearing. "If they feel that they can continue with this kind of activity with impunity, that will be harmful to the security of Iraq and to our interests in that country," he added.

Negroponte said he believed Iraq could still emerge as a viable democracy, despite spiraling sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shi'ites. "Failure in Iraq would be a disaster for Iraqis, for our friends in the region and for the United States," he said. But repeatedly pressed on the possible advantage of engaging Iran and Syria to help stabilize Iraq, Negroponte reiterated the administration position that Iran must first suspend its nuclear program and Syria crack down on extremists entering the country.

Trita Parsi suggests, via informed sources, that Iran may in fact agree to suspend uranium enrichment by the February 21 deadline in the current UN Resolution, but only after substantially ratcheting up its enrichment capability by joining together six cascades of enrichment centrifuges. Trita suggests this combination of accepting the key U.S. demand but only after crossing what the Israelis have called a red line in terms of enrichment capability, would create a major headache for the U.S.

The balance of power is being redefined in the region and that’s what it’s all about; Not whether Iran has nukes.

Stratfor:... Behind the scenes, however, the United States is likely revitalizing back-channel talks with Tehran to work toward a diplomatic resolution on Iraq. The Bush administration typically communicates with Iran via unofficial channels to maintain plausible deniability and to check Iranian moves to exploit Washington's call for talks. With Iran facing potential troubles of its own should Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pass away, Washington is hoping this two-pronged approach will hasten negotiations and allow Bush to claim progress in Iraq by November.