Iran & US: Shadowy on-going Negotiations and Placating Constituents
Iranian Envoy Says Iranians May Be Freed
BAGHDAD (AP) - Five Iranians detained during a U.S.-led raid in northern Iraq in January could be released as early as next week, Iran's ambassador said Wednesday.
Hassan Kazemi Qomi said U.S. officials had informed Iranian delegates at a weekend security conference here that they were in ``the final stage'' of the investigation into the case. Qomi said he hoped the five could be released before the Iranian New Year, which falls on March 21.
So, apparently we have been involved in stealth negotiating position with the Islamic Repbulic of Terrorists for quite a while now ...Jules Crittenden excerpts and analyzes a Stratfor report on the on-going covert negotiations between the United States and Iran. Tidbit:
The Iranians are also under pressure. They have miscalculated on what Bush would do: They expected military drawdown, and instead they got the surge. This has conjured up memories of the miscalculation on what the 1979 hostage crisis would bring: The revolutionaries had bet on a U.S. capitulation, but in the long run they got an Iraqi invasion and Ronald Reagan.Read more!
Expediency Council Chairman Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani already has warned the Iranians not to underestimate the United States, saying it is a “wounded tiger” and therefore much more dangerous than otherwise. In addition, the Iranians know some important things.
… Uncontrolled chaos next door could spill over into Iran in numerous ways — separatist sentiments among the Kurds, the potential return of a Sunni government if the Shia are too fractured to govern, and so forth. A certain level of security in Iraq is fundamental to Iran’s national interests.
… there are concerns that Iraq’s Shia are so fractious that they might not be serviceable as a coherent vehicle for Iranian power.
… Finally, Iran’s ability to threaten terror strikes against U.S. interests depends to a great extent on Hezbollah … far more interested in the power and wealth to be found in Lebanon than in some global — and potentially catastrophic — war against the United States. The Iranian leadership has seen al Qaeda’s leaders being hunted and hiding in Pakistan, and they have little stomach for that. In short, Iranian leaders might not have all the options they would like to pretend they have …
… Iran has sufficient power to block a settlement on Iraq, but it lacks the ability to impose one of its own making. Second, Hezbollah is far from willing to play the role of global suicide bomber to support Iranian ambitions. Third, an Iranian nuclear bomb is far from being a reality. Finally, Iran has, in the long run, much to fear from the Russians: Moscow is far more likely than Washington to reduce Iran to a vassal state …
ABF, for the promotion of human rights and democracy in Iran
