Saturday, January 27, 2007

"Intelligence Brief: U.S. Moves to Regain Leverage over Iran"

A brilliant analysis of our Iran's strategy by PINR. This strategy is working and we don't need the Democrats to undermine it.

Here are some excerpts:

(snip)

These moves are clearly attempts to change perceptions that the United States is in a position of weakness and that it is unwilling to further embroil itself in conflict. Eliminating this perception is critical for the United States in order to regain geopolitical influence in the Middle East. Perceptions of U.S. weakness -- which PINR has warned of since 2003 -- were recently confirmed by U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. On January 15, Gates confirmed that "the Iranians clearly believe that we are tied down in Iraq, that they have the initiative, that they are in a position to press us in many ways. They're doing nothing to be constructive in Iraq at this point." Gates went further, admitting, "I think that our difficulties have given them a tactical opportunity in the short term…" Gates, however, added that "the United States is a very powerful country." This caveat is a military reality that Iran must carefully take into account. While the United States is reluctant to further embroil itself in conflict, it retains the ability to attack Iran. In fact, it is possible that Washington's latest moves are in preparation for a strike on Iran, even if such a course of action would not be in the interests of the United States.

Nevertheless, even if the United States did not achieve its objectives in an attack -- such as ending Iran's nuclear research program permanently and eliminating its influence in Iraq -- it would prove detrimental to Iran's regional ambitions. For this reason, Iran will make efforts to avoid this outcome and it is here where the United States retains the most leverage. Indeed, there are reports that forces within the Iranian government are pressuring President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to tone down his aggressive posture so as not to invite a U.S. or Israeli attack.

1 comment:

Michael said...

Serendip:
Have you seen the reports of the US naval buildup in the Persian Gulf?

I wonder if (and hope it is) this is the prelude to a US confrontation with Iran. The US naval force is more than able to deal with Iran's navy and air force (it did in the mid '80's, when the Reagan Admin had a brief confrontation with Iran), and choke off all of Iran's oil exports and seaborne trade.

That sounds like leverage, to me.

Now the Bush Admin just needs to regain its credibility to threaten Iran. They've started, by giving US forces in Iraq permission to kill captured Iranian agents. I think it'll take an actual military conflict to make the mullahs that the US is serious, though.