Analysis says Iran's oil revenue is going to be Zero by 2015
While the scariest man in the world, Mahmood Ahmadinejad, chooses to peddle his inane drivel to Pope, a new study by Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University has published in this week's edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that the Islamic Republic could soon run out of oil to export. "Iran earns about $50 billion a year in oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 percent annually. In less than five years, exports could be halved, and they could disappear by 2015, Stern predicted."
Stern faults the inadequate investment (hostility to foreign investment to develop new oil resources) and mismanagement (poor state planning) and sheer negligence by the mullahs as the main causes of declining oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 percent annually. Stern also informs us that the poor managment and inadequate care and maintenance of the refinaries contribute significantly to the loss of revenue and waste of precious oil, "If we look at that shortfall, and failure to rectify leaks in their refineries, that adds up to a loss of about $10 billion to $11 billion a year." "That is a picture of an industry in collapse."
Iranian oil production, which has been the main industry in Iran since the 1920s accounts for more than 65% of the nation's overall revenue. Iran earns about $50 billion a year in oil exports. He also points out that Iran's Oil Peaked in the 1970s and has been on a decline since the early 1980s. (see definition of Peak Oil).
The original forecast by EIA (Energy Information Adminstration) was that Iran will run out of oil by the year 2025. However, I think the mullahs are looting the oil revenues at a higher rate and not re-investing the revenues to maintain their only source of profit. That's what happens when a bunch of uneducated mob are at the helm of fourth larges oil producing nation.
This is quite frightening for a nation who's main source of revenue is oil. Iran has been investing in everywhere else in the world except Iran to the determinant of the Iranians future.
I have no doubt the murderous regime is fully aware of this fact and that's why they have chosen to expand their domination in the region unwisely to compensate for their incompetence.
Blinded by Islamic fanaticism, inaptitude and hubris, they have squandered and exhausted the oil resources to line their own bulging pockets and have invested the oil revenue in Dubai, Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia, etc. Instead of re-investing the money to replace and upgrade the antiquated oil industry infrastructures build by the Brits in 1920s, the regime has chosen to give $12000 cash per person to shameless Southern Lebanese welfare queens and kings and building them schools and hospitals and offering them free health care. And god knows how much more to Hamas et al while 40% of Iranians live below poverty level and the GDP of around $2800 and per capita income of only $8600 (Peru and Thailand have the same per capita income althought they are not oil producing countries)
I think all democratic activists inside and outside of Iran should demand the full disclosure of all pertinent information regarding this energy crisis from the Islamic Republic. Sober and objective assessment of this looming threat that faces all Iranians has nothing to do with politics and should be vigorously debated and it's catastrophic consequences fully identified and remedied before it's too late. This priority is above partisan politics. Iranians should hold the Islamic parliament responsible, according to the obligations under its own constitution, to discuss and inform the people of Iran on the consequences of their inept management of nation's oil. They should come clean and inform the people of how they have not used the oil profit to secure it's sustainability and as a result endangering the national security of the nation.
Stern ends his analysis suggesting that the US should be patient and scrap military intervention because Iran will be exceedingly weak economically and politically," If the United States can "hold its breath" for a few years, it may find Iran a much more conciliatory country, he said. And that, Stern said, is good reason to delay any instinct to take on Iran militarily.
"What they are doing to themselves is much worse than anything we could do," he said.
The absolute priority is to end the reign of ignorance of these medieval NON-IRANIAN TAZIS. The clock is ticking and Iranian's culture, heritage, history, people, and national wealth are being wiped off the map by the Islamic ummah and their agents.
ABF, for the promotion of human rights and democracy in Iran
