How Supreme is Iran's Supreme Turban?

Supremely Paranoid;
Photo from Economist

There is something quite important afoot, that bears paying attention to. Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji have co-authored an interesting piece in the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which provides a rare insight into the internal power struggle between the two main factions of Islamic Republic's axis of power, the supremely paranoid Khamanei's faction (see "Men of Principle") and the capitalist/technocrat mullah Rafsanjani. It also looks like the democracy-hating *Heideggerian Crocodile (Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi), spiritual leader of Ahmadinejad, counting the days to replace opium-smoking Supreme leader. Interesting note on the co-author of this article, Mehid Khalaji: Mehdi Khalaji has been a frequent contributor to the Assembly of Experts journal Hukumat-e Islami. In addition, assembly speaker Meshkini is a longtime friend of the Khalaji family. Long article but worthwhile. Here are some highlights:
Rafsanjani excels at turning obscure posts into power centers. As Majlis speaker in the 1980s, he became a central powerbroker between the feuding president (Khamenei) and prime minister (a post since abolished). Ayatollah Khomeini subsequently created the Expediency Council to resolve differences between the many power centers in Iran's complicated government structure, later enshrined in the constitution. Although the council was initially weak, it acquired a large, active staff and a new headquarters next to the Supreme Leader's offices once Rafsanjani stepped down as president in 1997 and was appointed council chair. Intriguingly, the council has the main say in what happens while the Supreme Leader's post is vacant, at least until the Assembly of Experts elects a new leader.

Rafsanjani took full advantage of his success in the December 2006 assembly election to assert himself on the national stage. In early 2007 -- a period when Ahmadinezhad was being criticized in the conservative press for endangering Iran's national unity and security by acting too combatively, and when reports were circulating of Khamenei's ill health (e.g., Fars News Agency stated that he was hospitalized briefly) -- Rafsanjani began acting as if he were the real powerbroker. In February, he made a widely publicized round of visits to top ayatollahs in Qom. Rumors flew that, in addition to seeking their general support, he was sounding them out about reducing Khamenei's power. Then, at the first meeting of the new assembly, he stated, "The Fourth Assembly of Experts could exercise its supervisory powers more than before."

Khamenei came roaring back, however, with several fire-breathing major addresses around the Nowruz spring equinox holidays. The Supreme Leader reaffirmed the hardline stance on the nuclear program and asserted that any talks with the West had to be conducted under his strict control.

What to Expect Next, and Implications for the West

If permitted to remain at the head of the Assembly of Experts, Rafsanjani would pose a persistent and open challenge to Khamenei. Accordingly, the assembly will likely meet soon to place a politically inactive senior cleric atop the assembly, such as Mohammad Imam-e Kashani, the Tehran Friday prayer leader. Even in that case, however, Rafsanjani's twin posts at the assembly and the Expediency Council give him a power base from which he can maneuver to limit or replace Khamenei.

In the event that Khamenei dies, the new Supreme Leader would most likely be a compromise candidate rather than either of the two polarizing figures said to want the post: Rafsanjani, a technocrat, and Ayatollah Muhammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, an extreme hardliner openly dismissive of democracy. The senior clerics, the Majlis, the technocracy, and the revolutionary power structure (i.e., the IRGC, Basij, and the foundations that control the economy) all share a common interest in a weak leader with limited ability to check them.

For the West, there are many advantages if Iran's leadership is weakened by internal disputes. Such an Iran would be busier domestically and therefore less able to concentrate on foreign adventures. It would also be more aware of its weaknesses and therefore more likely to compromise. To be sure, a weak Supreme Leader would presumably have less authority to impose difficult compromises on objecting factions. That, however, seems like a price worth paying in order to see a less powerful revolutionary leadership.

*Heidegger and Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi

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Ayatollah Ahamd Janati: "It's the duty of every muslim to threaten American and British Interests"!

This Ayatollah has been a permanent member of Guardian Council (Shoraye Neghban) since 1979. A very dangerous ideologue, indeed. Here are some excerpts: (Read the full text, it's well worth it)

Roozonline:

After the 1979 revolution ayatollah Janati became the chief judge for Tehran, Isfahan and later Ahvaz. In 1981 he became a member of the management council of the Shahid Motahari propaganda school where he introduced the idea of the Sazmane Tablighate Eslami (Islamic Propagation Organization), along with messers Aabani, Shari and Emami Kashani. In 1982 he found his way into the Majlis-e Khobregan Rahbari (Expert Assembly for Leadership) as a representative from Khuzestan oil rich province. His other official positions have been the following: membership in the council of ayatollah Montazeri representatives at the universities (1987 – 1990), membership in the council of ayatollah Khamenei representatives 1990 till now, membership in the State Expediency Council (Majmae Tashkhis Maslahat Nezam), the temporary Friday prayer leader of Tehran, and, membership in the Guardians Council (Shoraye Negahban) since 1979.

Some former Hezbollahi members such as Amir Farshad Ibrahimi consider him a leader of such pressure groups as Ansare Hezbollah, while others see him as the person responsible for the fatwas (religious decrees) for the execution of intellectuals and dissidents. Janati has almost always been the initiator of the calls to attack opponents of the Islamic regime. What is not disputed is that he is the leader of the Hezbollah structure in Iran. During the Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami’s presidency, he formally took the position of criticizing their policies and began his staunch support of Ahmadinejad when the latter became president.[...]

Clearly the most noticeable element in the ayatollah’s life has been that he has been a permanent member of the Guardians Council (that is charged to protect the Constitution of the Islamic regime). And while he has not always been the most influential voice in national politics, the Council and therefore the cleric has always remained a key institution in the political structure of the state, affecting it and its numerous administrations. He first became a member of the Guardians Council when ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic order, appointed him to the body in 1980. With a 27 year presence in the body, he has twice been its leader.[...]

Janati has been publicly and openly vocal in his views. Here are some of his most famous quotes. “It is the duty of every Muslim to threaten American and British interests;” “One of the blessings of the Americans coming to the Persian Gulf region is that they are now within range of our shots;” “We are anti-American and we are America’s enemy;” “The Islamic regime becomes stronger despite America’s animosity;” “America’s phony power will collapse;” “Today is the day of our advance and the retreat of the enemy;” “Today imperialism and the West is facing a billion and a half Moslems” which he said in regard to the Danish cartoon crisis; and, “Non-Muslims are animals roaming the planet” which he said in connection with the religious clashes around the world. On the letter that president Ahmadinejad wrote to George Bush, he said that the letter was a divine present from God.

On Iran’s nuclear issue, ayatollah Janati has called reformist president Khatami’s policies wrong by saying that “The enrichment suspension [that Iran implemented] was wrong from the outset.” In 2005 after the Governing Board of the IAEA issued a statement against Iran, he claimed that “By returning to the Jihadi mentality we have forced the Governing Board to retreat.” He has also repeatedly said that the Iranian nation would not retreat from its positions on the nuclear issue. And finally he has supported the president’s nuclear ambitions by calling 20 Farvardin (April 10th) “Technology Day.”

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